Ackman’s Pershing Sq. is again at Canadian Pacific. This is what’s forward

Enterprise: Canadian Pacific owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada and the US. The corporate transports bulk commodities, together with grain, coal, potash, fertilizers, and sulfur. It additionally strikes merchandise freight, akin to power, chemical compounds and plastics, metals, minerals, and client, automotive, and forest merchandise. Additional, Canadian Pacific additionally transports intermodal visitors comprising retail items in abroad containers. The corporate provides rail and intermodal transportation companies by means of a community of roughly 13,000 miles serving enterprise facilities in Quebec and British Columbia, Canada; and the US Northeast and Midwest areas. By means of its merger with Kansas City Southern, Canadian Pacific will now have entry into Mexico, creating the primary single-line rail community that hyperlinks the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

Inventory Market Worth: $72.3B ($77.63 per share)

Proportion Possession:  1.59%

Common Value: n/a

Activist Commentary: Pershing Sq., managed by Invoice Ackman, is a really effectively revered and profitable activist. Whereas the agency doesn’t take plenty of activist positions relative to different activists, the positions it does take are usually giant, well-conceived and absolutely dedicated. Pershing Sq. sometimes appears for the next: (i) a high-quality enterprise, (ii) easy, predictable, money movement generative, sturdy development idea and (iii) a enterprise the place there is a chance to be a catalyst. Pershing Sq. beforehand had a well-publicized activist marketing campaign at Canadian Pacific between 2011 and 2016, making a return of 153.30% on their 13D scenario versus 70.13% for the S&P 500.

Pershing Sq. beforehand filed a 13D on Canadian Pacific on Oct. 28, 2011, and that grew to become some of the profitable and vital activist campaigns of the previous 20 years. There are three main components of an activist marketing campaign: (i) creating a plan to create worth, (ii) getting right into a place to implement that plan and (iii) efficiently executing that plan. Pershing Sq. impressed on all accounts. They developed a plan to switch the CEO with Hunter Harrison, the “Michael Jordan” of railroad CEOs. They fought an extended and onerous proxy struggle with a really excessive diploma of problem on the time and finally changed many of the board. Additional, the execution of the plan went both as anticipated or higher than anticipated, creating vital worth for shareholders. Pershing Sq. reluctantly exited this funding with a 153% return in 2016 when the inventory was buying and selling at $27.28 per share (cut up adjusted) on account of a slew of redemption requests associated to different Pershing Sq. investments. 

Their fingerprints are all around the current firm. They’ve since been watching Canadian Pacific, in search of entry level for funding, which by no means got here as the corporate’s inventory went virtually straight up since then. The chance now introduced itself within the type of the Canadian Pacific/Kansas Metropolis Southern merger. Whereas the acquisition has closed, the merger remains to be topic to ultimate approval by the Floor Transportation Board, which is anticipated to be obtained by the fourth quarter of 2022.

On a standalone foundation, Canadian Pacific has been doing very effectively, with Hunter Harrison mentee Keith Creel on the helm since Harrison’s departure. Creel has carried out, and continues to do, an incredible job rising the corporate and operating it effectively. Canadian Pacific’s merger with KCS will create the one railroad that travels between Mexico, the U.S. and Canada and create alternatives for income development and on the effectivity aspect. With respect to effectivity, Creel can apply the identical self-discipline he and Hunter Harrison utilized at CP to optimize the operations of KCS.  

However the higher alternative is on the income aspect. Most significantly, having a single railroad that may effectively transfer items from Canada all the way in which to Mexico is a big benefit in attracting prospects. However there are additionally a number of different tailwinds which have been highlighted and magnified by the current battle in Ukraine. First, the US is making a push to enhance its infrastructure, which ought to result in extra transportation of products all through the nation. Second, with gasoline at traditionally excessive ranges, firms are going to be in search of the most affordable approach to ship their items. Third, North American firms have already been shedding their willingness to depend on China as a distribution accomplice and want to preserve their provide chain nearer to dwelling. The battle in Ukraine and the opportunity of China shifting on Taiwan sooner or later has vastly elevated this concern.

Moreover, there’s an ESG profit right here as railroads are an power environment friendly approach to transport items. In response to the affiliation of American Railroads, utilizing 50 rail vehicles to ship meals from California to Ohio as an alternative of vans would take 126 vans off the street and eradicate 391.5 tons of carbon dioxide from being launched into the environment if vans had been used.

We count on Canadian Pacific 2.zero to be a really completely different scenario in comparison with the primary time round. Invoice Ackman likes this CEO. In actual fact, he’s considerably chargeable for him being there. This might be very amicable and if Pershing Sq. does take a board seat right here, will probably be to help administration as a long-term investor in a big funding for them. When you may have the premier administration staff in an trade, you need to add property and income to it. That’s precisely what Pershing Sq. sees occurring at Canadian Pacific.

Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional analysis service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio supervisor of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments.