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After per week during which the highest six males’s faculty basketball groups within the nation misplaced on the identical day and we noticed a shuffle all through the highest 10 of the Energy Rankings, the ultimate week of the 2021-22 common season introduced rather less drama. However, what did we actually anticipate? We wanted a break from the chaos, to avoid wasting of it for the NCAA match proper across the nook.
Earlier than we get there, there are convention tournaments and Champ Week. And given how unpredictable this season has been on the high, there may be certain to be one other shake-up coming. However what else do we have to determine over the subsequent few days?
SEC pecking order: There are 4 groups from the SEC more likely to find yourself within the high 16: Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas. The Tigers have been close to the highest of the rankings for months; the Wildcats shall be one of many favorites to chop down the nets; the Vols could be enjoying the perfect of anybody within the league; and the Razorbacks have misplaced solely twice in two months. If all 4 make the semifinals of the SEC match, the winners of these two video games may find yourself going a great distance towards figuring out Choice Sunday seeding.
Baylor or Kansas? Or each? Might each find yourself within the high 4? If Kansas beats Baylor within the Huge 12 title recreation, do the Jayhawks leap them on Choice Sunday? Can Baylor even grow to be the general No. 1 crew?
Is Houston a top-16 crew? After Sunday’s loss to Memphis, it is laborious to see Houston dwelling as much as its predictive metrics. The Cougars entered the day with a top-five rating within the NET, KenPom, BPI and Sagarin, and remained within the high 5 of KenPom even after dropping. However they’ve only one Quadrant 1 win, and it was a neutral-court win over Oklahoma State. The Cougars have not overwhelmed an NCAA match crew all season.
Lastly, that is the ultimate Energy Rankings of the season. Thanks a lot for studying for the previous 4 months. I will be again on the buzzer of the title recreation with the Manner-Too-Early High 25 for the 2022-23 season.
Positive, there have been another good wins this week: TCU beating Kansas, Wisconsin clinching the Huge Ten title by beating Purdue, Tennessee’s victory over Arkansas, Memphis locking up a bid vs. Houston. However come on, there is no different choose for this previous week. The largest rivalry within the sport, Mike Krzyzewski’s ultimate recreation at Cameron Indoor Stadium, in entrance of celebrities and 90-plus former gamers — and North Carolina went into Durham and walked away with a signature win that additionally punched the Tar Heels’ ticket to the NCAA match.
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Have a look again at among the most memorable buzzer-beaters to come back out of Championship Week.
I will be the primary to confess I did not suppose there was any likelihood Duke was going to lose Coach Okay’s ultimate house recreation. Zero likelihood. Then throw in the truth that Duke beat Carolina by 20 in Chapel Hill precisely one month in the past, and the Tar Heels have not overwhelmed a surefire NCAA match crew all season, and it simply appeared unlikely. However Carolina was terrific on Saturday. The Tar Heels got here out with a fast jab after which responded properly to a 14-Zero Duke run late within the first half. Carolina went punch for punch with Duke, then received some separation within the second half and stored its foot on the gasoline.
That was probably the most spectacular aspect of Carolina’s win: The Tar Heels have been so aggressive. It was all assault, assault, assault. Hubert Davis had his guards proceed to drive at Duke’s protection, particularly out of ball screens, after which both end on the rim or dish it to Brady Manek for a Three or Armando Bacot for a bucket. R.J. Davis (23 factors, 4 assists), Caleb Love (22 factors, 5 assists), Manek (20 factors, 11 rebounds) and Bacot (23 factors, seven rebounds) have been all terrific.
It was an announcement win for Carolina’s NCAA résumé — and an announcement win for Davis’ first yr as the pinnacle coach in Chapel Hill.
San Diego State had among the finest weeks of any crew within the nation, successful at Wyoming on Monday, beating Fresno State in double extra time on Thursday after which holding on to beat Nevada in Reno on Saturday night time. It was a three-game stretch that would see the Aztecs sporting house jerseys within the first spherical of the NCAA match. And the catalyst in all three video games was star guard Matt Bradley.
Bradley has been improbable all season since transferring from California, however he took his recreation up a notch final week. He had 30 factors, 5 rebounds and Four assists in opposition to Wyoming, making 5 3-pointers within the course of. In opposition to Fresno State, Bradley completed with 26 factors, 10 rebounds and a pair of assists. After which within the win over Nevada, Bradley had 24 factors and 6 rebounds. General, he averaged 26.7 factors and seven.Zero rebounds within the three video games, capturing 42.1% from 3-point vary.
Oh, and I am unable to overlook that Bradley and teammate Adam Seiko opted to not stroll on senior night time, that means Aztecs followers are more likely to get each gamers again subsequent season. Extra scoring exploits to come back.
I might be remiss if I did not additionally point out Houston Baptist ahead Darius Lee, who was a part of the epic 149-144 four-overtime recreation between Baptist and McNeese State on Saturday night time. Lee completed with 52 factors, 18 rebounds and 5 assists. In line with ESPN Stats & Data analysis, Lee is the primary Division I participant over the previous 25 seasons to file at the least 50 factors, 10 rebounds and 5 assists in a recreation.
It was lower than two weeks in the past that Nebraska wanted to come back out and obtain a vote of confidence from Fred Hoiberg because the Cornhuskers have been heading towards one more disappointing season. They began 7-21 general this season, 1-16 within the Huge Ten and with no single street win all season.
In fact, Nebraska has since gained three straight street video games, together with top-25 tilts this previous week at Ohio State and at Wisconsin.
On Tuesday, the Cornhuskers took management of the sport in opposition to Ohio State towards the tip of the primary half after which the start of the second, and did not let the Buckeyes constantly get inside putting distance down the stretch. Freshman star Bryce McGowens led the way in which, ending with 26 factors, whereas Alonzo Verge Jr., made 11 assists.
McGowens missed Sunday’s recreation at Wisconsin with a hand damage, however Nebraska nonetheless performed spoiler to the Badgers, who simply wanted a win to clinch the outright Huge Ten regular-season title. The Cornhuskers jumped out to a double-digit lead within the first half, noticed it disappear after Trey McGowens was ejected after which went on a 12-Zero run within the ultimate minutes to win. Verge was the star this time, ending with 26 factors and 6 assists.
Coach of the Week: Griff Aldrich, Longwood Lancers
When Aldrich was employed at Longwood within the spring of 2018, an NCAA match look inside 4 years appeared a bit far-fetched. Aldrich’s earlier teaching profession consisted of 1 season as an assistant coach at Hampton-Sydney in 2000, two seasons in an administrative position at UMBC in 2017 and 2018 — and 16 years as a lawyer and vitality government in between.
On the court docket, Longwood had by no means been to an NCAA match. The Lancers transitioned to Division I in 2004, and since becoming a member of D-I, had completed above .500 as soon as and by no means gained greater than 5 convention video games. They gained single-digit video games in 4 of six seasons earlier than hiring Aldrich.
Quick-forward to Sunday night time, and Aldrich and Longwood formally punched their ticket to the NCAA match by dominating Winthrop within the Huge South title recreation. The Lancers gained 26 video games this season, a 14-game enchancment on final season, and have misplaced simply as soon as since Dec. 22. Within the 21-point win over Winthrop within the championship, former Virginia Tech and Wake Forest switch Isaiah Wilkins was the important thing, ending with 19 factors, Eight rebounds, Three assists, Three steals and three 3-pointers.
Three groups with questions
Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers doubtless wanted to separate their ultimate two regular-season video games to be ok with their NCAA probabilities getting into the Huge Ten match. They fell at house to fellow bubbler Rutgers on Wednesday after which let an opportunity slip away at Purdue. They’re 2-7 of their previous 9 video games and must do a ton of labor within the convention tourney.
BYU Cougars: It may be a really lengthy week for BYU, which has no selection however to sit down and wait till Choice Sunday after dropping to San Francisco within the WCC quarterfinals on Saturday night time. A win there, and I believe the Cougars would have been in. It is laborious to see them getting a bid now, although. They’re 7-9 in opposition to Quadrants 1 and a pair of, with a Quad Four loss — and their metrics aren’t ok to make up for it. Plus, their competitors on the bubble can have a full week of probabilities to go them.
Alabama Crimson Tide: Clearly the Crimson Tide should not in bubble hassle just like the Hoosiers and Cougars, however they did lose by 16 at house to Texas A&M after which fell in extra time at LSU. Bama has now misplaced 5 of its previous 10 video games and is simply 11-11 since beating Gonzaga and Houston in back-to-back video games in early December. It has the No. 143 protection nationally since these wins.
Energy Rankings
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-3)
Earlier rating: 1
This week: West Coast Convention match
The West Coast Convention provides the highest two seeds double byes instantly into the semifinal, so Gonzaga was off this previous week. That additionally means it is not possible for it to fall off the 1-seed line — plus I believe it might take a semifinal loss by Gonzaga, and Baylor successful the Huge 12 match, to even entertain a dialog in regards to the Zags not being the general No. 1 seed. Their metrics are too good — No. 1 within the NET, KenPom, BPI and Sagarin — and their eight Quadrant 1 wins are sufficient to again up the predictive metrics.
2. Baylor Bears (26-5)
Earlier rating: 2
This week: Huge 12 match
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Armando Bacot throws down a dunk to assist UNC spoil Mike Krzyzewski’s ultimate house recreation at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
I believe it is protected to say James Akinjo is again. Among the finest level guards within the nation throughout the first half of the season, Akinjo suffered a tailbone damage in early January and his absence was the primary catalyst behind Baylor’s January-February droop. He missed solely two video games however was hampered in a number of others and did not fairly look himself. However this previous week, Akinjo appeared just like the dynamic scoring playmaker whom Baylor relied so closely on throughout its 15-Zero begin. Akinjo had 19 factors, Eight rebounds, 7 assists and simply 2 turnovers on the street at Texas on Monday, then adopted that up with 20 factors, Four rebounds and 6 assists in Saturday’s house win over Iowa State. He additionally hit 5 3s within the two video games after making simply seven since Jan. 15.
3. Arizona Wildcats (28-3)
Earlier rating: 3
This week: Pac-12 match
Arizona responded to its first loss in a month with a formidable 3-Zero week, beginning with some of the full performances I’ve seen from a high crew all season. The Wildcats went to USC on Tuesday and pummeled the Trojans, scoring 51 factors within the first half and successful by 20. They scored 1.33 factors per possession, one in all their best offensive efforts of the season. One of many few video games higher? Saturday’s blowout of California, during which Arizona scored 1.34 factors per possession. In opposition to USC, it was a barrage of 3s, with the Wildcats capturing 12-for-25 from behind the arc. However in opposition to California, the Wildcats have been unstoppable contained in the arc, and shot 75% from 2. In between these two video games, Arizona had a 12-point win over Stanford, scoring “solely” 81 factors on 1.13 factors per possession.
4. Auburn Tigers (27-4)
Earlier rating: 6
This week: SEC match
Jabari Smith jumped into the No. 1 general choose dialog fairly early within the season, however the freshman ahead could be enjoying his greatest basketball proper now. He nonetheless generally goes lengthy stretches with out touching the ball, which is not totally his fault. However when he does constantly get touches, he has been tremendous productive. Over his previous six video games, Smith is averaging 24.Eight factors, 7.Three rebounds and a pair of.2 assists, whereas capturing practically 57% from 3. He has scored at the least 27 factors in 4 of his previous six video games, together with 31 in opposition to Vanderbilt in mid-February and 27 factors in an extra time win at Mississippi State on Wednesday. His 3-point proportion is not sustainable, however his dimension and talent to make jumpers make him borderline unguardable at instances.
5. Kansas Jayhawks (25-6)
Earlier rating: 4
This week: Huge 12 match
Kansas is not enjoying its greatest basketball of the season getting into the Huge 12 match, coming off a four-game stretch during which it misplaced on the street to Baylor and TCU, then had a few shut house wins over TCU and Texas. And many of the points over that stretch have come on the offensive finish. Granted, the protection was porous within the two losses, however the offense struggled for probably the most half in all 4 video games. The Jayhawks did not rating greater than 1.05 factors per possession in any of the 4 video games, did not shoot over 50% from 2-point vary in any of the 4 video games and shot under 32% from 3-point vary in two of the 4 video games. An offense that ranks No. 6 nationally in adjusted offensive effectivity for the season is down at No. 65 in BartTorvik.com’s metrics over that four-game stretch.
6. Kentucky Wildcats (25-6)
Earlier rating: 7
This week: SEC match
If Kentucky goes to seem like the crew it was for many of January and February, it can want Kellan Grady to seek out his capturing stroke from the perimeter once more. The previous Davidson switch is capturing 43.1% from Three on the season, which is clearly improbable, however that drops a bit in SEC play, all the way down to 37.8%. And over the previous 4 video games, Grady is clearly in a droop, capturing simply 3-for-15 from behind the arc. Throughout an 11-game stretch, beginning with Kentucky’s demolition of Tennessee in mid-January and ending with the Wildcats’ win over Alabama on Feb. 19, Grady shot higher than 45% from Three and was making 3.5 of these per recreation. He gives spacing and perimeter steadiness for Kentucky, which has two drive-first guards within the backcourt and two frontcourt gamers way more comfy across the rim.
7. Tennessee Volunteers (23-7)
Earlier rating: 10
This week: SEC match
Only a few groups nationally are enjoying higher than the Vols proper now. They’ve gained 12 of their previous 14 video games since getting blown out at Kentucky, a stretch that features wins over Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas and LSU. The lone losses got here at Texas (by one level) and at Arkansas. The numbers again it up, too. Since Feb. 1, Tennessee has been the fifth-best crew within the nation in response to BartTorvik.com’s metrics. It has been elite defensively all season, however over the previous 5 weeks, it is within the high 30 nationally offensively too. It is not sufficient to leap off the web page, however it’s greater than sufficient when you have not allowed a crew to attain multiple level per possession since Feb. 1. This can be a respectable SEC match title and Ultimate 4 contender.
8. Duke Blue Devils (26-5)
Earlier rating: 5
This week: ACC match
I received into Carolina’s win over the Blue Devils above, so let us take a look at an even bigger pattern for Duke. The Blue Devils have 4 ACC losses this season: to Miami, Florida State, Virginia and North Carolina. In every, the successful crew turned it over precisely 5 instances. These 4 video games have been the 4 lowest defensive turnover proportion performances of the season for Duke’s protection, too. In each different ACC recreation this season, Duke’s opponent turned it over greater than 5 instances. One of many large keys all season to beating Duke is forcing the Blue Devils to go in opposition to a set protection within the half court docket as usually as attainable — no transition alternatives for Paolo Banchero, Trevor Keels and Wendell Moore to get going downhill. Taking good care of the ball and making it a half-court recreation is an important a part of that.
9. Wisconsin Badgers (24-6)
Earlier rating: 9
This week: Huge Ten match
I used to be beginning to purchase into the potential 1-seed résumé of Wisconsin, after it beat Purdue on Tuesday. After which the Badgers went out and misplaced at house to Nebraska. In order that dream is lifeless. However the extra vital difficulty is the standing of Johnny Davis. Davis left Sunday’s recreation following Trey McGowens‘ flagrant foul 2, with the varsity calling it a decrease physique damage. After the sport, coach Greg Gard expressed optimism that Davis could be “superb” and doubtlessly play in Friday’s Huge Ten match contest. If Davis is not fairly prepared, Wisconsin is clearly not the identical crew. He has missed two video games this season: a house loss to Windfall again in November and a slender house win over Nicholls State in December.
10. Purdue Boilermakers (25-6)
Earlier rating: 8
This week: Huge Ten match
Trevion Williams got here up with large play after large play within the ultimate minutes in opposition to Indiana on Saturday, beginning with a low-post basket with two-plus minutes left to offer Purdue a four-point lead. He then blocked a shot and received a deflection and steal within the ultimate minute, earlier than hitting two free throws with 11 seconds left to push the Boilermakers’ lead again to 4. General, although, Williams has been struggling on the offensive finish for the previous couple weeks. He is capturing simply 49.2% from 2 in Huge Ten play, the bottom proportion of his profession. Since Purdue’s struggles began in early February, Williams hasn’t been in a position to constantly get it going. Over his previous seven video games, Williams is averaging 9.1 factors and 4.7 rebounds with three single-digit scoring efforts.
11. Villanova Wildcats (23-7)
Earlier rating: 12
This week: Huge East match
I need to consider in Villanova in March. And at instances this season, it appeared just like the Wildcats have been beginning to spherical into type as an actual Ultimate 4 risk. They’ve the expertise, the guards, the teaching and extra. However their protection hasn’t been overly constant down the stretch of the season, and that issues me. In six of its previous 9 video games, Nova has allowed at the least 1.09 factors per possession. The three groups that did not hit that mark have been St. John’s, Georgetown and Butler. The six that did hit the mark have been all NCAA match groups. Villanova would not have a lot in the way in which of rim safety, though the Wildcats hardly ever do, however they’ve additionally been prone these days to second-chance alternatives and efficient low-post gamers.
12. Providence Friars (24-4)
Earlier rating: 11
This week: Huge East match
I did not anticipate a lot from Windfall’s regular-season finale at Villanova. The Friars had already clinched the regular-season title, they celebrated it fairly closely on the court docket after beating Creighton and Al Durham was out. However they went toe-to-toe with the Wildcats, occurring a 13-2 run within the second half to get inside putting distance and making it a recreation down the stretch. It was a testomony to Ed Cooley and the Friars’ potential. It was additionally an opportunity for Jared Bynum to get a uncommon begin, and he responded with 19 factors, 6 rebounds and 10 assists within the loss. Bynum has been improbable all season in principally a bench position, establishing himself as among the finest sixth males within the nation. In his previous eight video games, Bynum is averaging 20.6 factors, 4.Four rebounds and 5.1 assists whereas capturing 53.2% from 3.
13. UCLA Bruins (23-6)
Earlier rating: Within the ready room
This week: Pac-12 match
Regardless of a droop throughout the first half of February after which slipping up in opposition to Oregon for a second time this season, UCLA has quietly constructed up a really robust résumé, notably from a metrics standpoint. The Bruins are within the high 16 of each metric on the NCAA crew sheet, together with a top-10 rating at KenPom and within the BPI. They’re additionally 11-6 in opposition to Quadrants 1 and a pair of, haven’t any losses decrease than Quadrant 2 and personal wins over Arizona and Villanova on the high of the profile. On the ground, UCLA has gained six of its previous seven video games, and is beginning to get again to full well being. Johnny Juzang performed 32 minutes in opposition to USC on Saturday after lacking three of the earlier 5 video games, whereas Jaime Jaquez was terrific final week, scoring a mixed 57 factors on 21-for-33 capturing, with 15 rebounds and 5 assists in two video games.
14. Texas Tech Red Raiders (23-8)
Earlier rating: 13
This week: Huge 12 match
Given its perimeter capturing points, how deep a run can Texas Tech make within the NCAA match? The Pink Raiders are the worst 3-point capturing crew within the league, making simply 28.0% of their 3s in convention play. They have not made double-digit 3s in a recreation since November and so they’ve made fewer than seven in 12 of their previous 15 video games. No one on the roster has made greater than 41 3s this season, and solely Bryson Williams shoots higher than 33.3% from the perimeter.
Now throw in the truth that Texas Tech’s opponents shoot 3s at the next price than practically anybody within the nation and get the next proportion of their factors from 3s than practically anybody within the nation, and it could be a priority in opposition to a prolific perimeter crew within the opening couple rounds. However I am nonetheless shopping for into Mark Adams’ crew, principally resulting from its elite protection and the way troublesome dealing with will probably be on a brief turnaround.
15. Illinois Fighting Illini (22-8)
Earlier rating: Within the ready room
This week: Huge Ten match
Illinois’ quest for a Huge Ten title appeared over after a house loss to Ohio State towards the tip of February. However Purdue proceeded to lose back-to-back video games to Michigan State and Wisconsin, after which the Badgers misplaced on the ultimate day of the common season at house to Nebraska, leaving the door open for the Combating Illini to forge a tie. And Illinois held up its finish of the discount, getting back from 15 all the way down to beat Iowa and earn the 1-seed within the Huge Ten match. Andre Curbelo had too many turnovers and fouls, however his playmaking potential was on show on Sunday, and shall be vital transferring ahead. He had 14 factors and 6 assists. From a résumé standpoint, the Combating Illini are actually solidly a top-four seed. They’re 12-Eight in opposition to Quadrants 1 and a pair of, with a sweep of Iowa and a house win over Wisconsin on the high of the profile.
16. Arkansas Razorbacks (23-6)
Earlier rating: 14
This week: SEC match
Arkansas misplaced for simply the second time in 16 video games on Saturday, with the Razorbacks’ comeback falling simply quick at Tennessee in Knoxville. I do not need to learn an excessive amount of into the loss — Tennessee jumped out to an enormous first-half lead after capturing 75% from Three within the first 20 minutes, which does not really feel sustainable — however it’s the fourth straight recreation during which Arkansas has allowed at the least 1.05 factors per possession. The Razorbacks have been the SEC’s greatest protection in league play, permitting simply 0.93 factors per possession and preserving 12 straight opponents under 1.00 level per possession. However Florida, Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee all discovered success in opposition to the Razorbacks. The latter three groups in that group are all surefire NCAA match groups, and Kentucky and Tennessee are Ultimate 4 threats, so the uptick in competitors might have performed a task, however Arkansas does must tighten issues again up getting into the postseason.
Dropped out: UConn Huskies (No. 15), Saint Mary’s Gaels (No. 16)
Within the ready room
UConn Huskies: UConn cut up its ultimate two video games, dropping at Creighton by two after which dealing with DePaul at house, however the Huskies get edged out within the rankings by Arkansas and Illinois, which each picked up résumé-boosting wins this previous week. UConn does have some large probabilities within the Huge East match, with Seton Corridor and Villanova on its facet of the bracket.
Saint Mary’s Gaels: Saint Mary’s drops from the rankings after getting a double bye into the WCC semifinals, just because the groups behind the Gaels picked up key wins and leapfrogged them. I nonetheless suppose the Gaels are very a lot in place to seize a 5-seed if they’ll get into the WCC title recreation and never get steamrollered by Gonzaga.
Houston Cougars: As talked about earlier, Houston goes to be an awfully fascinating check case for the committee. Getting blown out by Memphis on Sunday doubtless takes the Cougars out of the combo for a top-four seed, when mixed with their full dearth of high quality wins. However they nonetheless have elite metrics and an AAC match title would maintain them in a positive place.
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