DK Metcalf commerce simulation – Seven gives from NFL groups, the Seahawks’ steep asking worth and a verdict

Seattle Seahawks large receiver DK Metcalf is not going to be traded this offseason — proper?

Basic supervisor John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll have said that they “intend for him to be with us,” however additionally they said similar things earlier than dealing superstar quarterback Russell Wilson to the Broncos final month. Metcalf, 24, a free agent subsequent yr, is eligible for a contract extension and simply noticed Tyreek Hill turn out to be the highest-paid wide receiver in NFL historical past. Will he be taking a look at the same payday?

Metcalf is within the closing yr of his rookie contract, making $3,986,000 in 2022. He has has 3,170 receiving yards and 29 touchdowns since Seattle drafted him on the finish of Spherical 2 in 2019. Whereas there was no agency indication that the Seahawks have any intention to commerce him, his contract scenario and the franchise’s oft-stated philosophy of exploring each attainable transfer means that Seattle will a minimum of hearken to gives.

So that is what we’re doing right here. We requested our NFL Nation reporters to function the overall managers of the groups they cowl and make lifelike commerce gives for Metcalf. We requested that reporters make gives solely if their groups have authentic curiosity in Metcalf and have the cap house to signal him to a possible extension. We ended up with seven gives to current to Seahawks reporter Brady Henderson, who then evaluated the gives based mostly on what he thinks the Seattle entrance workplace would do.

Which groups made gives for Metcalf, and what may the Seahawks get in return? And is Seattle actually prepared to maneuver on from Metcalf? This is how our simulated market performed out, beginning with why the workforce may transfer on and ending with a verdict:

Leap to a proposal:
Browns | Chiefs | Eagles
Falcons | Jets | Packers | Saints

Why Seattle may commerce — or hold — Metcalf

The Seahawks are a workforce in transition. They’ve the salary-cap house to provide Metcalf a megadeal and shall be in even higher form subsequent yr, when Wilson’s contract comes off their books. Nonetheless, with the ability to afford the deal does not essentially imply they’d be keen to pay the type of cash that Metcalf may command now that the large receiver market has skyrocketed. Schneider appeared to suggest some reluctance when he talked concerning the sticker shock from the latest mega offers for Hill and Davante Adams, which common $30 million and $28 million, respectively.

If the Seahawks give Metcalf the same deal, they’d be paying two receivers huge cash — they gave Tyler Lockett a four-year, $69 million extension final yr — to play in an offense that Carroll prefers to not be centered across the passing sport. They could need to lean extra on the run post-Wilson.

There is a sturdy case for Seattle to pay no matter it takes to maintain Metcalf, nevertheless. He has completed with a minimum of 900 yards in all three of his NFL seasons, together with a franchise-record 1,303 in 2020. He could be the workforce’s finest participant, and he’s undoubtedly its finest draft choose prior to now six years, if not longer.

Metcalf is the kind of participant the Seahawks must be rebuilding round, a younger and gifted star who ought to nonetheless be in his prime by the point they get again to rivalry. In different phrases: One in every of these gives higher blow them away or they should not even think about it. — Brady Henderson

Our commerce gives for Metcalf

Tim McManus’ provide: The Eagles would commerce 2022 third- and fifth-round picks (Nos. 83 and 154).

Contained in the provide: The modest provide right here displays that the Eagles would possibly solely be in on Metcalf at a sure danger degree. They rated him as a top-15 prospect within the 2019 draft, however the neck injury that ended his final season at Ole Miss saved them from drafting him. They are not going to surrender one of their first-round picks to accumulate him.

Philadelphia tried to commerce for Calvin Ridley earlier this offseason and made a run at Christian Kirk in free company, and Metcalf would give the franchise the impression receiver it seeks. The Eagles would have a stellar 1-2 punch at receiver with Metcalf and DeVonta Smith, with Quez Watkins and newly acquired Zach Pascal filling the third and fourth roles. Jalen Reagor, a 2020 first-round choose who has 64 catches in two seasons, might be moved to get a much-needed recent begin. Jalen Hurts would have all of the targets he may ask for to be correctly evaluated in his second season because the full-time starter.

Jake Trotter’s provide: The Browns would commerce a 2023 second-round choose and quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Contained in the provide: The Browns have to unload Mayfield anyway, and packaging him with a second-rounder would possibly entice Seattle. Cleveland, which traded away its first-round pick within the 2022 draft to accumulate Deshaun Watson, probably would solely deal subsequent yr’s choose in order that it may hold its prime choose (No. 44) this yr. The Seahawks may get a one-year have a look at Mayfield and add the choose to their trove for a possible rebuild.

Seattle might be an honest touchdown spot for Mayfield, who would seemingly mesh with coach Pete Carroll and the kind of offense he desires to run. The Seahawks would possibly present Mayfield along with his finest likelihood to start out in 2022.

For the Browns, Metcalf and Amari Cooper would give them an imposing front-line receiving duo. They’re searching for a No. 2 wideout, however touchdown Metcalf would give them two No. 1-caliber choices for Watson.

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Michael Rothstein’s provide: The Falcons would commerce 2022 second- and fifth-round picks (Nos. 58 and 151), together with a 2023 fourth-round choose.

Contained in the provide: The Falcons desperately want large receivers — their present starters are Auden Tate and Olamide Zaccheaus — and younger expertise as they start to rebuild after the Matt Ryan period led to March. This deal would take away some capital for 2022 that might damage within the brief time period, however they might nonetheless hold the No. eight total choose to get one other premier starter.

Including Metcalf would give the Falcons a confirmed receiver who is simply 24 years outdated and the kind of quick, big-bodied receiver that coach Arthur Smith likes. It might give new quarterback Marcus Mariota a prime goal to throw to, and the mix of tight finish Kyle Pitts and Metcalf could be a chore for any workforce to cease. Whereas an extension would probably need to be a part of this deal, it may additionally imply Pitts and Metcalf could be a dynamic pairing for the following half-decade, a minimum of. This commerce would give Smith one other versatile participant to work with as he tries to assemble the offense in his picture.

Adam Teicher’s provide: The Chiefs would commerce 2022 first- and third-round picks (Nos. 30 and 103).

Contained in the provide: After buying and selling Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs now not have a No. 1 large receiver. They do have two picks in every of the primary 4 rounds on this draft, although, and will afford to half with these choices.

Nonetheless, it is mindless to commerce Hill for an enormous package deal of picks as a result of he desires a large contract extension after which flip round and provides away most of these picks for an additional receiver who desires an extension. In that case, the Chiefs ought to have simply saved Hill and given him the extension he needed. They might be within the Metcalf sweepstakes as a result of he would make them higher, but there’s solely up to now they might go.

Kansas Metropolis’s prime 4 large receivers could be Metcalf after which, in some order, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman. These wideouts would flourish with the addition of Metcalf, and the workforce would have far more depth than it had final season.

Rob Demovsky’s provide: The Packers would commerce 2022 first- and fourth-round picks (Nos. 28 and 132).

Contained in the provide: The Packers have two first-round picks and want to exchange Davante Adams — quick. Whereas they nonetheless may draft a receiver excessive, even with the No. 22 total choose they acquired from the Raiders in the trade for Adams, they understand how arduous it’s for a rookie receiver to make a right away impression — particularly with a quarterback as exact and demanding as Aaron Rodgers. Coach Matt LaFleur stated Inexperienced Bay wants somebody to take the highest off of coverages, and Metcalf could be an ideal match.

It might primarily imply the Packers lastly used a first-round choose on a receiver, though not within the precise draft. They have not drafted a receiver in Spherical 1 since Javon Walker in 2002. It may be the right spot for Metcalf, going from top-line quarterback in Russell Wilson to top-of-the-line in Rodgers.

The Packers do not at present have a No. 1 wideout. You could possibly argue that they do not actually have a No. 2, both. The most important situation could be their wage cap. They’ve about $15 million in cap house this yr. Metcalf’s cap variety of $3,986,000 would not be a difficulty, aside from the truth that he’ll desire a new deal that may pay him greater than $20 million per yr.

Mike Triplett’s provide: The Saints would commerce 2022 first- and third-round picks (Nos. 16 and 98).

Contained in the provide: New Orleans already made one aggressive transfer to add a second first-round pick in a commerce with the Eagles. On this state of affairs, the Saints would parlay that into filling their most obtrusive want for a premium move catcher. The offense completed 32nd within the league in passing yards final season. The Saints have receiver Michael Thomas and quarterback Jameis Winston getting back from main accidents, however they nonetheless want so as to add a minimum of another premier pass-catcher by way of commerce, free company or the draft.

The Saints have room for a No. 2 receiver alongside Thomas, whereas fellow wideouts Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harty may fill the opposite spots. The wage cap is a matter for the Saints, however we all know they’re keen to stretch it for the correct participant after their pursuit of Deshaun Watson. Spending this a lot on Metcalf would make it more durable for them to fill wants at security and offensive deal with, however these aren’t as urgent.

Including Metcalf would make the Saints’ offense a little bit of a thriller — in a great way. We have now seen longtime offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. adapt his offensive id fairly a bit through the years based mostly on personnel.

Wealthy Cimini’s provide: The Jets would commerce 2022 first- and third-round picks (Nos. 10 and 69).

Contained in the provide: Seattle may ask for the Jamal Adams deal (two first-round picks and a third-rounder), however why would the Jets enable themselves to be fleeced after fleecing the Seahawks? Certain, the Jets may quit one other premium choose for Metcalf — they’ve two first- and two second-round picks — however they may simply draft a top receiver at No. Four or 10. It does not make sense to surrender the fort for Metcalf, nearly as good as he’s. Primarily based on the generally used commerce worth chart, this proposal exceeds what they provided the Chiefs for Tyreek Hill: 1,545 factors to 1,227 factors.

The Jets want a WR1, pure and easy. They want a difference-maker to assist speed up quarterback Zach Wilson‘s improvement. They have not had a 1,000-yard receiver since Brandon Marshall in 2015.

If this deal went by way of, the Jets nonetheless would have a first-round choose (No. 4) and two second-rounders (Nos. 35 and 38) to deal with different wants. Assuming Metcalf will get a long-term extension as a part of the deal, the workforce most likely could be capped out, growing the significance of these picks. His arrival would additional cloud the way forward for Denzel Mims. It additionally may impression Corey Davis, whose $13.7 million cap cost is okay for now however will not be if he is the third-best wideout.

In principle, Metcalf, Elijah Moore and Davis could be the highest three receivers, with Moore able to enjoying inside and outdoors. Braxton Berrios can share responsibility within the slot. They might add one other receiver after the primary spherical.

The decision: The Seahawks move on all seven gives.

Henderson: This did not find yourself being as simple of a choice as I initially thought it could be, with one provide piquing my curiosity upon nearer inspection. My start line was two first-round picks or one thing of equal worth, as a result of if I am Schneider and Carroll, how may I even think about something lower than that after giving up extra in the Jamal Adams trade?

Sure, Adams had one other yr left on his rookie deal, however Metcalf performs a way more invaluable place. Primarily based on my reporting, I might guess that they might view one thing within the neighborhood of two firsts because the minimal for Metcalf. The Seahawks do not have to commerce him and might drive a tough discount.

The Falcons’ and Eagles’ gives did not come near that start line. Laborious move on each. Hopefully for Philadelphia normal supervisor Howie Roseman’s sake, his e-mail obtained caught in Schneider’s junk folder.

The Browns’ provide was additionally a nonstarter, even with Mayfield. Sure, the Seahawks are searching for Wilson’s long-term alternative and Mayfield has confirmed greater than Drew Lock, who’s at present slated to be their beginning quarterback. The workforce, nevertheless, is higher than you might think on Lock’s potential and needs to provide him a one-year trial run to see if he’s worthy of long-term consideration.

The issue with the Cleveland commerce state of affairs is that buying Mayfield by way of a commerce would imply inheriting his assured wage for 2022, which is almost $19 million. That is an inexpensive worth for a quarterback who has proved to a minimum of be beginning caliber — and whose struggles in 2021 might be partly attributed to a shoulder injury. Seattle most likely would not need to purchase Mayfield at that worth as a result of it could successfully lock him in as its QB1 for this season, throwing its finest likelihood of getting a real analysis of Lock out the window. A second-round choose in subsequent yr’s draft is not almost sufficient to offset the problem of Mayfield’s wage.

Of the 4 gives that included a first-round choose, the Jets’ was simply the very best. And it seems higher the extra you dig into it.

In keeping with the Jimmy Johnson and Rich Hill trade value charts, the mixed level whole for choose Nos. 10 and 69 is roughly equal to that of a mid-first-round choose this yr plus one other mid-first-rounder in 2023. That is whenever you issue the overall rule of thumb that picks lose one spherical of worth for yearly they’re pushed out.

If evaluating them solely to picks on this yr’s draft, Nos. 10 and 69 could be roughly equal in worth to 2 picks within the early-to mid-20s. Both means, the Jets made a robust provide even when it technically does not embrace two first-rounders.

I do not suppose it is sufficient for the Seahawks, although. Metcalf is simply too good, too younger and too promising to surrender for that return. He is additionally too well-liked amongst Seahawks followers, and that needs to be a consideration for Schneider and Carroll on condition that they only moved on from two of the very best gamers in franchise historical past in Wilson and Bobby Wagner. Parting with their most enjoyable participant could be one other intestine punch to the 12s.

Now what for the Seahawks? They’re going to take their probabilities on getting a deal performed with Metcalf, which shall be easier said than done, given the place the market has gone. Their M.O. has been to attend till the summer season for a lot of these extensions, however it could be of their finest curiosity to maneuver shortly on condition that three different receivers from the 2019 draft are additionally eligible for big-money offers: A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin. Metcalf has extra mixed yards and touchdowns than all three and will command more cash than them if these offers get performed earlier than his. Which may additionally give him incentive to attend.

Curiously, Metcalf’s agent, Tory Dandy, additionally represents Brown and Samuel. The Seahawks have a great relationship with Dandy, which may assist. However that does not imply they will see eye-to-eye on a quantity. If not, they may at all times revisit the commerce risk later this offseason.