Musk’s Tesla dominates EV gross sales however that might be coming to an finish in accordance with report from S&P

In line with new analysis from S&P World Mobility, extra carmakers will pile into the house with lower-priced alternate options—particularly with fashions costing lower than $50,000, “the place Tesla doesn’t but really compete,” the agency wrote this week. 

“Tesla’s place is altering as new, extra reasonably priced choices arrive, providing equal or higher expertise and manufacturing construct,” S&P wrote. “On condition that client alternative and client curiosity in EVs are rising, Tesla’s means to retain a dominant market share will probably be challenged going ahead.”

S&P predicts that Tesla’s EV market share will fall beneath 20% by 2025, down from 79% in 2020, 71% final 12 months, and 65% this 12 months (by means of the third quarter). By the top of 2025, it added, the variety of EV fashions bought by completely different firms can have grown to 159, up from 48 at present. That can imply way more choices for shoppers, and fewer of a market share for Tesla. 

“Earlier than you are feeling too badly for Tesla, nonetheless, keep in mind that the model will proceed to see unit gross sales develop, whilst share declines,” mentioned Stephanie Brinley, affiliate director of AutoIntelligence for S&P World Mobility, in a press release. “The EV market in 2022 is a Tesla market, and it’ll proceed to be, as long as its rivals are sure by manufacturing capability.”

However the analysis agency added that “manufacturing capability is being addressed, as automakers, battery producers and suppliers pour billions into that facet of the equation.”

For instance, Volkswagen’s new ID.4 meeting line in Tennessee has 20,000 unfilled reservations and a capability of seven,000 models monthly, S&P famous, and that alone “ought to change the EV quantity image considerably.” 

Tesla didn’t instantly reply to Fortune’s request for remark. 

In Tesla’s third-quarter earnings name, Musk mentioned Tesla was engaged on a extra reasonably priced new mannequin, having accomplished “the engineering for Cybertruck and for Semi.”

“We don’t need to discuss precise dates,” he added, “however that is the first focus of our new car improvement crew.”

“Tesla has opened two new meeting crops in 2022 and is in search of the location of its subsequent North American plant,” S&P famous. “Tesla at present is the model greatest outfitted for profiting from the rapid surge in EV demand, although manufacturing investments from different automakers will erode this benefit before later.”

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