Actual Madrid vs Barcelona Clasico preview Predictions, large questions, stats to know, key matchups

Sunday’s Clasico between Real Madrid and Barcelona on the Bernabeu — stream LIVE, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN+ — may not be decisive by way of LaLiga’s title race, nevertheless it’s nonetheless a fiery rivalry with a lot on the road. For Actual Madrid, it is the ultimate actual hurdle between them and profitable the league, whereas for Barcelona, Xavi has a terrific likelihood to indicate simply how rapidly the Blaugrana revolution goes.

The betting strains from Caesars (topic to variation) are +110 for Actual Madrid, +235 for Barcelona and +265 for the draw, whereas Paul Carr writes that this one might have loads of objectives, suggesting that over 2.5 objectives (-150) and each groups to attain (-170) are good picks.

Which crew has the sting? Which gamers will seemingly determine the competition? And which head-to-head matchups can be essential? Alex Kirkland (Actual Madrid) and Sam Marsden (Barcelona) break down the sport from each views.

Bounce to: Big questions | Interesting stats | Difference-making players | Key head-to-head matchups | Predictions

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The large query for every crew

How do Actual Madrid method a Clasico that kicks off with them 10 factors clear on the high of the desk, and 15 factors above Barcelona? This fixture all the time, all the time issues, however this time it will not be decisive within the title race.

Sevilla, their nearest challengers, appear to be they’re slipping away, and with 10 video games left it is onerous to think about a situation the place Madrid do not find yourself champions. So whereas a win in opposition to Xavi’s resurgent Barca could be trigger for celebration, a draw could be high-quality and a slender loss could be no motive to panic.

The provision of Karim Benzema — on the time of this writing, a doubt with a calf drawback picked up in Madrid’s 3-Zero win at Actual Mallorca — can be a major issue. Madrid depend on Benzema to dictate their ahead play. In his absence final month, coach Carlo Ancelotti experimented with Marco Asensio, Isco and Gareth Bale within the position with various levels of success.

The temptation is to select Benzema even when he isn’t totally match, however is {that a} danger you possibly can take with LaLiga near being received and the Champions League quarterfinals on the horizon?

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Can Barcelona management the sport and maintain the ball as distant from their purpose as doable? Beneath Xavi Hernandez, Barca have improved all three “Ps” (possession, positioning and urgent), however they continue to be removed from the completed article. With out the ball, good counter-attacking groups can nonetheless exploit their weaknesses, and Madrid actually match that class. There have been already indicators of Barca’s enchancment when the groups met within the Spanish Supercopa in January. Finally, although, Madrid picked them off on the break to seal an extra-time win in Saudi Arabia.

Barca’s upward trajectory has continued over the previous two months and with some added effectivity in entrance of purpose, they’ve comfortably dismantled Atletico Madrid, Valencia, Napoli and Athletic Bilbao, scoring 4 objectives in opposition to all of them. The problem in opposition to Madrid can be to actually check how far they’ve come.

If they’ll maintain the ball away from Carlo Ancelotti’s aspect, win it again rapidly once they lose it and restrict counterattacks (issues they’ve achieved in current video games in opposition to inferior opposition) there isn’t any motive they can not finish their barren run — Barca have not crushed their rivals in LaLiga since 2019 — on this fixture.

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Stats of curiosity heading into Sunday

Actual Madrid are on their greatest Clasico run in years, having received the final 5 conferences in all competitions. The final crew to dominate this rivalry to that extent was Pep Guardiola’s Barca, who received 5 in a row between 2008 and 2010, together with the well-known 6-2 on the Bernabeu and 5-Zero at Camp Nou.

Benzema is LaLiga’s excellent offensive participant, topping the charts for objectives (22) and assists (11) in addition to anticipated objectives (17.2), non-penalty objectives (17), pictures (89), pictures on course (38) and passes into the penalty space (72). (All stats from FBRef.) The breakout season of Vinicius Junior is backed up by numbers too. The winger has dribbled previous 97 gamers — his nearest rival, Rayo Vallecano‘s Oscar Trejo, has 61 — and carried the ball into the opposition field 78 occasions, means forward of Betis’ Nabil Fekir with 48.

Surprisingly, goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois doesn’t have the best save proportion in LaLiga — his 78.4% is available in second to the 80% of Sevilla’s Bono — however elsewhere, Madrid gamers lead in numerous key classes. Toni Kroos is the participant who has performed most passes into the ultimate third (207, forward of Barca’s Sergio Busquets), and Casemiro has received essentially the most tackles (60).

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Xavi’s fingerprints on this Barca aspect are most seen in how the crew has recovered its urgent fashion, however the largest enchancment has been in entrance of purpose. The January signings of Ferran Torres, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Adama Traore have particularly helped in that sense: Torres already has 5 objectives in all competitions, whereas Aubameyang has weighed in with six. Traore’s contribution has been establishing objectives, with 4 assists in six appearances.

Objectives have been an enormous drawback for Barca earlier than January. Of their first 21 league video games this season, they scored 32 occasions. In contrast, they’ve netted 20 objectives of their final six LaLiga matches. The objectives at the moment are flying in from all over the place, too, with Riqui Puig the 22nd participant to attain for them within the league this season when he netted final weekend. By no means have so many various gamers scored for a membership in the identical season within the Spanish high flight.

These objectives have contributed to a four-game profitable run within the league and a 12-game unbeaten streak as, with Xavi on the helm, they’ve risen from ninth to 3rd within the desk. The final time they misplaced a sport in regular time was in December to Bayern Munich, with their solely two defeats within the 18 video games since coming after extra-time.

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The gamers almost definitely to make a distinction are…

Although Benzema and Vinicius usually seize the headlines, there is a robust case to be made that Courtois has been Madrid’s most constant, and essential, participant this season. The goalkeeper has conceded simply 21 objectives in 28 LaLiga video games to this point, preserving 12 clear sheets, and is assured to make one jaw-droppingly good save per sport.

Courtois’ kind has helped minimise the impression of Madrid’s typically shaky defence. David Alaba and Eder Militao are each wonderful footballers, however neither is resistant to the occasional blunder, whereas damage issues for Dani Carvajal and Ferland Mendy have left the crew uncovered at full-back.

In midfield, Luka Modric remains to be massively influential, offering dynamism and ahead momentum alongside Kroos’ rhythmic passing and Casemiro’s assertive play. Modric excelled in opposition to Paris Saint-Germain final week and was then rested in opposition to Mallorca with the Clasico in thoughts. Watching the Croatian go up in opposition to Barca’s younger pretenders Pedri and Gavi — their mixed ages, 19 and 17, add as much as Modric’s 36 — must be good enjoyable.

Xavi’s emphasis has been on the group since he took over. “Urgent is non-negotiable,” he mentioned on Wednesday. “There is not any room for anybody that is not ready to press. The group is extra essential than any particular person.”

If Sergio Busquets performs effectively, that normally means Barca play effectively, too. There was numerous debate in regards to the membership captain this season. Is he nonetheless able to performing in opposition to the most effective? Ought to he be dropped? Although there’s one other query, requested earlier within the marketing campaign, which now appears extra related: Why is Busquets higher for Spain than Barca?

It is all a matter of fashion. Beneath Luis Enrique with the nationwide crew, he is performed higher as a result of the system fits him. With Xavi, that’s now additionally the case at Barca once more. It is true that at 33 age is more and more in opposition to him, nevertheless it’s additionally true that Busquets at his greatest, robbing balls again excessive up the pitch and giving it to extra inventive gamers, is normally an indication that Barca are enjoying effectively.

Elsewhere, €55 million signing Torres has rapidly established himself as Barca’s key ahead. His motion and intelligence have vastly improved the crew’s attacking output, and whereas his ending has let him down at occasions, Xavi will not be fearful. “The objectives will come,” the coach says.

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Key head-to-head matchups

Mendy’s thigh damage means it’ll seemingly be Marcelo at left-back going up in opposition to Ousmane Dembele or Adama Traore on Barcelona’s proper wing. Simply the considered that can have Madridistas fearful.

Marcelo, 33, is a membership legend, however there is a motive his contract won’t be renewed when it expires this summer time. The Brazilian was all the time happier becoming a member of the assault reasonably than defending — that is nonetheless the case, as evidenced by the pinpoint cross he offered for Benzema to attain with a header in opposition to Mallorca on Monday — however he more and more struggles to get again into place following these frequent forays forwards.

There is not any query Barca will goal Madrid’s left-hand aspect if Marcelo begins, and the considered Dembele or Traore working riot on that flank is a sobering one. He’ll want help from midfield — the inclusion of Fede Valverde would supply cowl — and Vinicius must monitor again too.

The midfield battle can be fascinating as Barca’s children, Pedri, Gavi and Frenkie de Jong, alongside veteran Busquets, try to get the higher of Madrid’s skilled trio of Casemiro, Modric and Kroos. Simply as essential, although, would be the matchup on the wings. Dani Alves going head-to-head with fellow Brazilian, Vinicius, must be significantly fascinating.

Vinicius, 21, is having fun with an distinctive season and could have an excessive amount of tempo for Alves. Nevertheless, what Alves might lack in tempo — and he isn’t gradual by any means — he makes up for in expertise. How he offers with Vinicius on the Madrid left and the way Barca generally deal with Madrid’s counter-attacks might decide the end result of this match.

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Prediction time!

Actual Madrid 1-1 Barcelona: Sure, it is a bit of a cop-out, however given the circumstances it is a scoreline Actual could be pleased with: it retains them on monitor for the title, whereas Barcelona want a consequence as they give the impression of being to safe a top-four end.

Each groups are on kind and assured, however the similarities finish there: Madrid are a settled, efficient and considerably predictable aspect underneath Ancelotti whereas Xavi’s Barca are solely now rising as one thing thrilling and uncooked. Count on Barca to take the sport to Madrid and dominate possession, however danger exposing themselves on the counterattack, simply as we noticed when the 2 sides final met within the Supercopa in January. — Kirkland

Actual Madrid 2-Three Barcelona: Whereas there’s all the time stress on the groups within the Clasico, each units of gamers might really feel there’s much less this time round. It might take a monumental collapse for Madrid to lose the league from right here, whereas Barca’s return to kind ought to guarantee them of a top-four spot and Champions League soccer come Could. Hopefully, then, the groups will reduce unfastened.

Logic dictates that Madrid’s settled aspect will be capable to climate the Barca storm, however the Blaugrana are ever-improving and stuffed with confidence heading to the Santiago Bernabeu this weekend. Their dropping run in opposition to Madrid should finish someday. — Marsden