The largest storylines of Thursday’s first spherical of March Insanity 2022

Strap in. The motion is about to start. Now that we have trimmed the groups from 68 to a neat 64, the primary spherical of the 2022 NCAA males’s match is about to begin. Sixteen groups will take to courts in Buffalo, Fort Price, Indianapolis on Thursday, however there aren’t any ensures on who will make it by way of to Saturday. Will 1-seeds Gonzaga, Baylor and Kansas survive? Will No. 2 seed Kentucky deal with Saint Peter’s and keep away from the destiny that befell 2-seed Ohio State in opposition to Oral Roberts in 2021? Which participant will save his staff from elimination and develop into a family identify?

ESPN’s faculty basketball staff of Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway and Joe Lunardi thought-about all these questions and made some predictions for the primary spherical of March Insanity.

Brackets are open! Head to the Tournament Challenge and fill out your bracket now!

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Thursday’s schedule

All instances Jap

12:15 p.m.: 11 Michigan Wolverines vs. 6 Colorado State Rams, CBS
12:40 p.m.: 13 South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. 4 Providence Friars, truTV
1:45 p.m.: 9 Memphis Tigers vs. 8 Boise State Broncos, TNT
2 p.m.: 16 Norfolk State Spartans vs. 1 Baylor Bears, TBS
2:45 p.m.: 14 Longwood Lancers vs. 3 Tennessee Volunteers, CBS
3:10 p.m.: 12 Richmond Spiders vs. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes, truTV
4:15 p.m.: 16 Georgia State Panthers vs. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs, TNT
4:30 p.m.: 9 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels, TBS
6:50 p.m.: 12 New Mexico State Aggies vs. 5 UConn Huskies, TNT
7:10 p.m.: 15 Saint Peter’s Peacocks vs. 2 Kentucky Wildcats, CBS
7:20 p.m.: 12 Indiana Hoosiers vs. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels, TBS
7:27 p.m.: 9 Creighton Bluejays vs. 8 San Diego State Aztecs, truTV
9:20 p.m.: 13 Vermont Catamounts vs. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks, TNT
9:40 p.m.: 10 San Francisco Dons vs. 7 Murray State Racers, CBS
9:50 p.m.: 13 Akron Zips vs. 4 UCLA Bruins, TBS
9:57 p.m.: 16 Texas Southern Tigers vs. 1 Kansas Jayhawks, truTV

What number of upsets do you’ve got in Thursday’s 16 NCAA match video games, and which one are you feeling greatest about touchdown?

Medcalf: By seed, I do not see many upsets. I believe a lot of the greater seeds will win on Thursday. My upset prospects are largely those which can be trending. I really feel most assured about 13-seed South Dakota State beating 4-seed Providence. Ed Cooley’s staff did a outstanding job on its solution to the Huge East common season championship, however the Friars are up in opposition to a South Dakota State squad that has shot 44% from 3, and final misplaced a sport 10 days earlier than Christmas. Additionally, if the Jackrabbits win, they get a shot at Iowa. There is a regional David vs. Goliath factor happening there, and I count on them to be extraordinarily motivated going into this afternoon in anticipation of going through a Huge Ten staff — that includes a bunch of men all of them confronted on the AAU and highschool circuits — within the second spherical.

From there, I believe Michigan can restrict Colorado State‘s second-chance alternatives and win as an 11-seed that by some means did not must play within the First 4. After which I will cheat and go together with the 9 over Eight upset, Memphis beating Boise State. I believe Memphis misplaced to Houston within the AAC title sport on Sunday solely as a result of it was too fatigued after having made an incredible turnaround over the previous few months. However you do not need to face Jalen Duren and a bunch of versatile, bouncy athletes who can stand up and down the ground and construct up an enormous lead early. I believe the Tigers advance there.

Borzello: By seed, I believe we can have three — two 9s over 8s, after which my largest upset decide of the day: South Dakota State over Windfall. It is a pretty common upset decide, so far as 13-seeds go, but it surely is sensible for a variety of causes. South Dakota State is an elite, elite capturing staff. The Jackrabbits are the very best 3-point capturing staff within the nation. They will have the very best NBA prospect on the ground in Baylor Scheierman. Windfall’s protection hasn’t been overwhelming down the stretch of the season, permitting three of its final seven opponents to attain no less than 1.20 factors per possession. The Friars will be inclined to play shut video games, no matter opponent, and I believe South Dakota State’s capturing capacity offers it the sting.

Gasaway: Within the curiosity of constructing this attention-grabbing I will keep away from 8-9 video games and I will even take a cross on No. 11 Michigan over No. 6 Colorado State, although the Wolverines are favored on paper. The place’s the enjoyable in choosing a “Huge Ten over Mountain West” upset? As a substitute, I will go one seed line down with a 12-5 “Huge Ten over West Coast Convention” shocker! I will take Indiana over Saint Mary’s. Sure, the Gaels compelled Drew Timme into 2-of-10 capturing of their win at residence over Gonzaga, however Trayce Jackson-Davis is on an unbelievable roll. Plus he has loads of assist, and I actually like IU in a matchup of its D in opposition to the SMC offense. It will not be simple, however the Hoosiers might win a detailed one right here.

Lunardi: Sadly, I solely have one. And it goes in the identical basket as my colleagues: South Dakota State over Windfall. I believe we’re all anticipating the inevitable dip within the Friars’ late-game outcomes, and the nation’s high 3-point capturing staff — in addition to its chief in KenPom’s efficient subject purpose proportion — is poised to do the deed. In my fast bracket response, I additionally had Michigan beating Colorado State (11 over 6) and San Francisco taking our Murray State (10 over 7). However with the Wolverines shedding level guard DeVante’ Jones to a concussion and the Dons nonetheless with out heart Yauhen Massalski (knee), I am switching again to the favorites in these contests.

Which staff (or coach) is going through essentially the most stress heading into Thursday’s video games?

Borzello: I do not know if it is essentially stress, however I do suppose Fran McCaffery will get some blowback if Iowa does not get out of the primary weekend. The Hawkeyes are taking part in in addition to any staff within the nation proper now, profitable 12 of their final 14 video games and the Huge Ten match, however they nonetheless solely obtained a 5-seed. McCaffery has superior to the second spherical in every of his final 4 NCAA tournaments, however has by no means been out of the primary weekend as a head coach. That features final season’s second-round loss as a 2-seed. Iowa has some Remaining 4 hype attributable to its current type and the presence of Picket Award candidate Keegan Murray, and I believe it will be considered as a disappointment if the Hawkeyes do not get to the Candy 16.

Medcalf: I believe Juwan Howard is going through essentially the most stress. His staff began the season as a top-five squad within the AP ballot and ended the common season as a staff that did not have any ensures. Many have been disenchanted when Michigan was positioned into the bracket and not using a First 4 sport. The drama with Wisconsin’s Greg Gard is up to now. However that is the sort of factor that can come up your entire offseason if the Wolverines lose within the first spherical. With a win, Howard can remind of us that he is a very good coach who continues to convey elite gamers to Ann Arbor, and proceed to place that drama behind him. With a loss to a Mountain West squad, though Michigan is the decrease seed, I believe folks will name this season a catastrophe that Howard created, and one he should repair getting into subsequent yr.

Gasaway: Since 1975 the reply to any query with the phrases “most stress” has been UCLA. I count on the Bruins to advance in opposition to Akron, and actually Mick Cronin’s staff is the overwhelming favourite. If lighting ought to strike, nevertheless, and if the 13-Four insanity have been to materialize, the recriminations could be swift. We people have difficulties acknowledging quixotic rarities in our sports activities occurrences by saying, “Goodness! What a quixotic rarity that was!” As a substitute, we seek for a logical clarification the place there will not be one. That’s factory-installed stress for UCLA.

Lunardi: I will take “quixotic realities” for $200, Alex. Within the meantime, my reply is Ed Cooley of Windfall. The narrative, rightly or wrongly, is that the Friars have been “fortunate” much more than they have been good. It isn’t a good characterization within the mixture, however there have been video games the place some success has actually tilted of their route. A loss to South Dakota State, which may be very attainable due to the Jackrabbits’ energy (versus Windfall shortcomings), might invalidate the Friars’ nice season within the eyes of their skeptics.

What do you contemplate Thursday’s most intriguing matchup?

Gasaway: Vermont in opposition to Arkansas, one of the correct capturing groups in Division I in opposition to top-of-the-line defenses. True, there is a stable likelihood the Razorbacks will simply be an excessive amount of to deal with for an America East staff. This may very well be a kind of scores you see within the nook of the display and suppose, “Effectively, I need not change to that sport.” Nonetheless, there’s some modest disagreement between laptops over simply how stable that likelihood is. This type of evaluative range can from time to time flag surprises prematurely.

Borzello: Like Gasaway, I am very intrigued by Vermont vs. Arkansas, one other common upset decide. I believe the Razorbacks are too athletic and versatile for Vermont, although. So I will go together with Indiana and Saint Mary’s. The Hoosiers did sufficient within the Huge Ten match to go dancing, after which knocked off Wyoming on Tuesday. Saint Mary’s had a headline win over Gonzaga in February that propelled the Gaels to a 5-seed, however Indiana will not be a pushover for Randy Bennett’s staff. I believe the large key shall be whether or not Saint Mary’s can rating constantly on the rim. The Gaels’ guards choose to assault off the bounce and make performs within the paint, however Indiana defends 2-pointers in addition to any staff within the subject.

Medcalf: I like Marquette versus North Carolina with a pair of first-year head coaches who may also help their respective causes with a win. Shaka Sensible arrived at Marquette because the man who hadn’t totally met expectations in Texas and had not led the Longhorns to the second spherical throughout his time there. However a win within the opening spherical would set the stage for his future at Marquette, the place it seems he can construct a top-tier Huge East squad. And Hubert Davis had an up-and-down season that was stamped by his staff’s win over Duke within the common season finale. There have been some doubters getting into that sport. However he modified lots of minds that evening. If he can lead UNC to the second spherical, he’ll draw extra believers. This sport may very well be large, and it may very well be ugly. However I believe it will likely be enjoyable. Count on Justin Lewis and Armando Bacot to hold their groups.

Lunardi: Give me Indiana and Saint Mary’s. Taking part in the Gaels is actually a math downside. Can a staff rating effectively sufficient in restricted possessions to make up for Saint Mary’s nearly by no means taking a nasty shot? Even when it means fewer photographs for each groups? It is a powerful task in the very best of instances. For the Hoosiers, taking part in a hard-fought sport 2,000 miles away lower than 48 hours earlier is clearly sub-optimal.

Identify one participant who shall be a family identify after Thursday’s video games.

Gasaway: Douglas Wilson. The South Dakota State star can have gone toe-to-toe within the paint with Nate Watson of Windfall in what can have been one more shut sport involving the Friars. Who is aware of, ought to the Jackrabbits pull off the upset the 6-7 senior might even observe within the footsteps of a Plains hoops sensation from yesteryear and be labeled “Dougie.”

Medcalf: Tevin Brown was a freshman on Ja Morant’s Murray State squad that beat Marquette and superior to the second spherical of the NCAA match in 2019. Now he is the junior chief of the staff, and he is averaging 16.9 PPG and connecting on 39% of his 3-point makes an attempt this season. I believe Brown can have an enormous evening in opposition to San Francisco and present everybody that he is greater than Morant’s former teammate.

Borzello: Baylor Scheierman. He would possibly already be identified by faculty hoops diehards after profitable Summit League Participant of the Yr honors this season, however he will should be the star if South Dakota State goes to beat Windfall. He is 6-foot-6, has elite NBA vary (shot 49% from Three in Summit play), is a terrific passer and retains defenders guessing along with his capacity to create his personal shot.

Lunardi: Tommy Kuhse. The Saint Mary’s level guard is in his sixth yr for coach Randy Bennett, and his management of tempo and affected person shot-making is what allowed the Gaels to knock off No. 1 Gonzaga of their regular-season finale. Count on extra of the identical on Thursday and past.