The March Insanity ache index

The assist group for 66 fan bases has returned.

The Duke Blue Devils and Villanova Wildcats had been the most recent to hitch the March Insanity checklist that may finally embody each staff however one, the group of NCAA event groups destined to finish in any other case tremendous seasons with a loss. Both the Kansas Jayhawks or North Carolina Tar Heels will be part of this checklist Monday night time, and the sensation just isn’t destined to be nice.

Each staff’s exit from the event has its personal distinctive story, however some are undoubtedly harder to swallow than others, so we sought to quantify the frustration. Listed below are the principle components we thought of in measuring the March Insanity ache:

• Did your staff squander a recreation it regarded prefer it had gained? ESPN’s win chance information helped decide the suitable stage of devastation right here.

• Did your staff squander a golden alternative in opposition to a perceived lesser opponent?

• Did your staff come up brief in a bid to make some form of historical past? First NCAA win/Candy 16/Last 4 in a very long time is what we had been searching for right here.

• Was it the tip of an period? Did your staff have a gaggle of seniors identified to be departing? A coach on the transfer or headed towards retirement?

We thought of these components and stacked the L’s. For those who’re a fan of a staff on this checklist, learn alongside and take consolation within the notion that distress will at all times love firm.

66. Texas Southern Tigers (No. 16 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Kansas defeated the Tigers 83-56 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 5.0% (Texas Southern 2, Kansas Zero at 17:58 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: Texas Southern continued its mastery of the First 4, taking down Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in Dayton to advance to the spherical of 64 for a second straight 12 months. As soon as there, the Tigers struggled to maintain tempo with the Jayhawks as anticipated, getting caught on the enterprise finish of a 28-7 run to shut the primary half and just about finish the dream. TSU trailed by 28 on the break, and it was educational from there for eventual nationwide championship participant Kansas in opposition to the SWAC champs.

65. Montana State Bobcats (No. 14 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. Three seed Texas Tech defeated the Bobcats 97-62 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 5.4% (Montana State 2, Texas Tech 0, 19:05 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: The Bobcats gained the Massive Sky regular-season title after which swept by way of the convention tourney to succeed in the NCAA area for the primary time since 1996, however actuality set in fairly rapidly for Danny Sprinkle’s group in San Diego. Texas Tech shot 66.7% from the ground and was up by 27 on the break en path to the rout that ended an in any other case triumphant season for MSU. “We clearly did not play our greatest as we speak and nearly 100 p.c of that has to do with Texas Tech,” Sprinkle stated. “It felt like they had been guarding me.”

64. Norfolk State Spartans (No. 16 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Baylor defeated the Spartans 85-49 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 3.8% (Baylor 5, Norfolk State 3, 17:18 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: For the second straight event, the MEAC champion Spartans did not cling round notably lengthy in a 1 vs. 16 battle. A Three from Baylor’s Matthew Mayer put the Bears up 21-10 with 12:45 to play within the first half, and NSU would by no means creep again inside single digits. “At some stretches, I believe we let the second get away from us a little bit bit,” stated Spartans coach Robert Jones, who watched as Baylor shot 31-of-54 (57.4%) from the ground.

63. Longwood Lancers (No. 14 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. Three seed Tennessee defeated the Lancers 88-56 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 6.6% (Tennessee 16, Longwood 15, 11:34 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: The Lancers of Farmville, Virginia, had been within the NCAA event for the primary time of their Division I historical past, and saved their heads above the waves for concerning the first 10 minutes earlier than the Volunteers seized management. Tennessee went on a 34-12 run to finish the primary half with a 25-point lead that successfully closed the e book on the Massive South champs.

62. Wright State Raiders (No. 16 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Arizona defeated the Raiders 87-70 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 6.4% (Arizona 52, Wright State 44, 14:44 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: The Raiders made historical past by taking down Bryant to earn the college its first NCAA victory, and did it simply miles from their very own Dayton-based campus. The duty acquired precipitously harder within the spherical of 64 in opposition to top-seeded U of A, although Wright State remained inside cheap hanging distance nicely into the second half earlier than fading.

61. Bryant Bulldogs (No. 16 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 16 seed Wright State defeated the Bulldogs 93-82 within the First 4

Peak win chance: 59.0% (Bryant 5, Wright State 0, 17:24 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: The Bulldogs gained the NEC title to earn the college’s first NCAA event bid, and the college would have been happy at how the optimistic of a First 4 win might need countered the unwanted national attention garnered by some ugly fan habits in its NEC title victory over Wagner. However it was to not be, as Jared Grasso’s group acquired caught on the enterprise finish of a 15-Four second-half run that turned a 62-57 recreation to a 77-61 deficit from which Bryant wouldn’t get better. Peter Kiss, the main scorer in Division I, scored 28 factors, however his work was overshadowed by that of Wright State’s Tanner Holden (37 factors).

60. Georgia State Panthers (No. 16 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Gonzaga defeated the Panthers 93-72 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 24.0% (Georgia State 54, Gonzaga 52 at 13:10 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: Georgia State gave us the closest factor we needed to a 16 over a 1 within the 2022 event, because the Solar Belt champs held a lead on the general No. 1 seed pretty deep into the second half earlier than order was restored. Gonzaga outscored Rob Lanier’s group 41-18 over the ultimate 13 minutes, leaning into their bodily measurement benefit to come back away with what a minimum of the ultimate rating stated was a decisive win. It will be the tip of an period for GSU, as Lanier parlayed his time with the Panthers right into a head teaching position with SMU.

“I hate for these guys that the rating actually is not indicative of how the sport was actually performed,” Lanier stated. “I am actually pleased with these guys, not only for the hassle tonight, only for their total contributions to our program.”

59. CSU Fullerton Titans (No. 15 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Duke defeated the Titans 78-61 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 5.5% (Duke 33, CSU Fullerton 27, 2:16 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: The Massive West tourney champs had been right here after successful a thriller over Lengthy Seaside State within the convention remaining, and it wasn’t implausible that Dedrique Taylor’s 21-win group might add to a Duke first-round Big Killer checklist that included the likes of Lehigh and Mercer. However the Blue Devils raced out to a 17-Four lead and had been by no means specifically hazard, with all 5 starters ending in double figures because the Titans struggled to maintain tempo offensively. “Even within the timeouts, I stated to the fellows: ‘The pictures we’re getting are good pictures,'” Taylor stated. “They only weren’t falling. I believe on the finish of the day, Duke’s measurement and athleticism and power — these pictures regarded a little bit completely different as we speak than they did final Saturday.”

58. Yale Bulldogs (No. 14 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. Three seed Purdue defeated the Bulldogs 78-56 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 7.1% (Yale 16, Purdue 15, 13:07 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: Yale was an intriguing 14-seed for bracket fillers, lots of whom had been nicely conscious that the Bulldogs had upset Baylor again within the 2016 event and threw a scare into LSU final time they had been right here in 2019. However this was not an excellent matchup for James Jones’ 2021-22 group, which was bothered by the Boilermakers’ measurement up entrance and had no actual reply for possible lottery decide Jaden Ivey (22 factors) within the backcourt. That stated, Jones & Co. needed to be a bit bemused to see 15-seed Saint Peter’s pull off the Goliath-slaying feat in opposition to Purdue per week later.

57. Delaware Blue Hens (No. 15 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Villanova defeated the Blue Hens 80-60 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 18.3% (Delaware 15, Villanova 8, 11:04 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: Delaware entered its first NCAA event since 2014 taking part in with home cash a bit after toppling three straight higher seeds to win the CAA tourney as a 5-seed. However there was some disappointment in shedding to close by Villanova, the college’s CAA soccer rival, the previous residence of Blue Hens ahead Dylan Painter, and the alma mater of UD coach and Philly-area native Martin Ingelsby’s dad, Tom. Additionally, this regarded it was going to be a recreation for practically a half, till the Wildcats went on an 8-Zero flurry to take a 10-point lead into the break and put an finish to the real looking upset situations. “[We] put a little bit scare in them,” Ingelsby stated. “I believe the tip of the primary half and early a part of the second half they had been capable of prolong that lead and we had been battling uphill from there.”

56. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (No. 15 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Auburn defeated the Gamecocks 80-61 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 20.6% (Jacksonville State 21, Auburn 18, 6:59 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: The ASUN regular-season champion Gamecocks had been right here below unusual circumstances — they had been defeated within the convention event semifinals however had been awarded the automated bid as a result of ASUN tourney champ Bellarmine was nonetheless within the midst of its Division I transition. So there was some motivation for JSU in proving it belonged within the area, and an opportunity to topple an in-state behemoth like Auburn offered some extra incentive. However a 17-Three Tigers run to finish what had been a nip-and-tuck first half successfully knocked the Gamecocks out, and their 40 NCAA event minutes are sadly destined to be remembered for what might need been the dunk of the event from an eventual NBA lottery decide:

55. Richmond Spiders (No. 12 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. Four seed Windfall defeated the Spiders 79-51 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 39.6% (Richmond 0, Windfall 0, 19:38 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: It was a terrific March for Richmond by any cheap commonplace, because the Spiders gained 4 video games in 4 days (together with upsets of rival VCU, Dayton and Davidson) within the A-10 event to go dancing for the primary time since 2011, then surprised Massive Ten tourney champ Iowa in one of many bracket-shaking upsets of the primary spherical. All the above was extra memorable for Chris Mooney’s group than the best way it ended, with UR capturing 1-of-22 from Three in a recreation that was not inside single digits over the ultimate 33-plus minutes. “On the finish of the day, they performed higher basketball than us,” Richmond level guard Jacob Gilyard stated of Windfall. “They made pictures. We simply weren’t ok.”

54. UAB Blazers (No. 12 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 5 seed Houston defeated the Blazers 82-68 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 13.6% (Houston 8, UAB 7, 16:01 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: UAB over Houston wouldn’t have been perceived as a shocking 12-over-5 upset. The Blazers ranked among the many nation’s high mid-majors all 12 months, had loads of event historical past (10 NCAA wins all-time), had been led by a coach with March Insanity pedigree in Andy Kennedy and featured one of many event’s dynamic gamers in Jordan “Jelly” Walker. However the upset bid by no means actually materialized, because the Cougars shot it too nicely (53.3% from 2, 47.6% from 3) and Walker (1-of-10 from 3) by no means acquired comfy in opposition to Houston’s notoriously powerful protection. “They do not provide you with something free,” Kennedy stated of Houston. “I knew they had been going to actually attempt to tilt the ground and restrict Jelly’s open appears to be like, they usually actually did that.”

53. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders (No. 16 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 16 seed Texas Southern defeated the Islanders 76-67 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 70.3% (Texas A&M-CC 55, Texas Southern 51, 8:37 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: The Islanders had the 2022 NCAA event’s shortest journey, ousted within the First 4 a little bit greater than 48 hours after seeing their title introduced on Sunday night time’s Choice Present. And there was no disgrace for Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, which was within the area for the primary time since 2007 after successful the Southland as a 4-seed, with a first-year head coach (Steve Lutz) and a roster that had been nearly fully overhauled within the offseason. That stated, this system’s first NCAA event win was proper there for the Islanders, who shot 1-for-11 from the sphere over the ultimate six minutes as Texas Southern assumed management when it mattered.

52. LSU Tigers (No. 6 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 11 seed Iowa State defeated the Tigers 59-54 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 74.0% (LSU 5, Iowa State 4, 17:22 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: LSU’s NCAA event circumstances had been weird, and never for the primary time, as the college lastly ousted scandal-plagued coach Will Wade on the eve of the 2022 event and was led by an interim coach for the second time in 4 years. It was laborious to know whether or not a proficient however inconsistent Tigers group would rally round interim coach Kevin Nickelberry or would have one foot within the switch portal. The outcomes had been someplace in between. LSU fell behind 24-12 within the first half however did not give up, tying it at 31-31 within the second half and heading into the ultimate two minutes down 51-50 and holding an opportunity. However the Cyclones’ Tyrese Hunter hit two dagger 3s within the closing minutes, the Tigers missed a few key free throws, and the sport went to ISU.

“We had been within the recreation until the tip,” Nickelberry stated afterward. “I stated all week it is simply basketball, however the distractions had been quite a bit and these guys nonetheless fought by way of these distractions, went out and gave LSU an opportunity to win tonight.”

51. Seton Hall Pirates (No. Eight seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 9 seed TCU defeated the Pirates 69-42 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 55.4% (Seton Corridor 4, TCU 2, 15:41 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: What would turn into the ultimate recreation of the Kevin Willard period was removed from a factor of magnificence for the Pirates, who shot it horribly in all three phases (28.8% from 2, 28.6% from 3, 54.5% from the road), had been outmuscled on the boards (39-26) and dedicated 16 turnovers in a recreation the place the result was by no means actually doubtful within the second half. Two days later, Maryland made it official and employed Willard as its subsequent head coach to finish months of hypothesis to that finish, and Seton Corridor followers watched as esteemed alumnus and soon-to-be Pirates coach Shaheen Holloway led Saint Peter’s on the deepest run for a New Jersey program in 31 years.

50. Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 6 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. 11 seed Notre Dame defeated the Crimson Tide 78-64 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 73.4% (Alabama 25, Notre Dame 21, 6:40 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: It was a considerably becoming finish for an Alabama staff that simply appeared to be lacking one thing all through 2021-22, a proficient group that could not match the usual of its 2020-21 SEC champion unit and a staff that not many bracket fillers trusted to make a deep run. And it did not, giving up a profession recreation to Notre Dame’s Cormac Ryan (29 factors on 10-of-13 capturing) on an evening that noticed level guard Jahvon Quinerly exit early with what was termed a “critical” knee damage. “He is an enormous piece of what we do,” Bama guard Keon Ellis (16 factors) stated afterward. “We positively felt the influence of shedding him.”

49. Wyoming Cowboys (No. 12 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. 12 seed Indiana defeated the Cowboys 66-58 within the First 4

Peak win chance: 43.6% (Wyoming 21, Indiana 17, 3:41 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: Wyoming was the final at-large chosen to the sphere and appeared intent on rewarding the NCAA choice committee’s determination with what would have been this system’s first tourney win in 20 years. However the Cowboys unwittingly touched off a Mountain West nightmare, as a league that had a resurgent common season went 0-Four and was wiped fully out of the event by Thursday night time. Wyoming dedicated 19 turnovers, together with 10 from star level guard Hunter Maldonado (21 factors), and had no reply for Trayce Jackson-Davis (29 factors on 10-of-16 capturing) on the opposite finish. “You recognize, [we] give that staff 19 empty possessions after I thought for essentially the most half we had been getting the pictures we wished to get,” Wyoming coach Jeff Linder lamented afterward.

48. Virginia Tech Hokies (No. 11 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. 6 seed Texas defeated the Hokies 81-73 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 66.2% (Virginia Tech 6, Texas 0, 15:08 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: The Hokies entered the event as one of many hottest groups within the area, a gaggle that went 13-2 in its earlier 15 video games together with an ACC event title punctuated by decisive wins over groups that will finally attain the Last 4 in North Carolina (72-59) and Duke (82-67). In that context, Tech’s one-and-done exhibiting was a downer, even when the seed traces say it was anticipated. The Hokies performed the Longhorns even for a half, however struggled to defend a Texas staff that shot 10-of-19 from Three and noticed all 5 starters rating in double figures.

47. Saint Mary’s Gaels (No. 5 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. Four seed UCLA defeated the Gaels 72-56 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 58.0% (Saint Mary’s 20, UCLA 13, 10:16 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: The Gaels registered their finest seed at school historical past and justified it by destroying Indiana (82-53) in Spherical 1, however got here up brief in a quest to succeed in the second weekend for the primary time since 2010. Saint Mary’s jumped out to a seven-point first-half lead earlier than a 17-2 UCLA run modified the sport in favor of the Bruins. Randy Bennett’s squad would pull inside 38-37 on an Alex Ducas Three earlier within the second half however would get no nearer because the Gaels struggled to defend UCLA’s scorers and could not sustain on the offensive finish. “I want we might have performed higher,” Bennett stated, “and I am positive UCLA in all probability had one thing to do with that. … It wasn’t one in all our higher video games.”

46. Iowa State Cyclones (No. 11 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 10 seed Miami defeated the Cyclones 70-56 within the Candy 16

Peak win chance: 55.1% (Iowa State 8, Miami 7, 15:33 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: A staff that rebounded from a 2-22 season to not solely survive the Massive 12 gantlet but in addition attain the second weekend of the NCAA event made for an astonishing story, and there was little disgrace in the best way it finally ended for a Cyclones group that had in all probability reached its ceiling. Nonetheless, with a 10-seed between ISU and the Elite Eight, Cyclones supporters had cheap hopes of successful a minimum of yet one more recreation. However 18 turnovers and poor capturing (4-of-22 from 3) deflated these hopes, and it might be Miami that will go on to face Kansas within the regional remaining. “It was a particular run,” ahead George Conditt IV remarked.

45. Boise State Broncos (No. Eight seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. 9 seed Memphis defeated the Broncos 64-53 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 40.3% (Boise State 12, Memphis 12, 11:26 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: Though the Mountain West regular-season and event champs had been thought of by many to be underseeded, the seed traces nonetheless stated the Broncos had an amazing shot at would have been this system’s first NCAA event win. However BSU had the misfortune of going through an ultratalented Memphis staff that was 12-2 in its earlier 14 video games, and the expertise hole turned obvious because the Tigers ended the primary half on a 16-2 run to guide by 19 on the break. Leon Rice’s staff chipped away within the second half, getting inside 56-51 on a Naje Smith layup on the 1:26 mark, however the mountain finally proved too tough to climb.

“They only went down swinging,” Rice stated. “They did not roll over for anyone. They are going to be remembered for an extended, very long time, and the issues they did helped this program to maintain constructing.”

44. New Mexico State Aggies (No. 12 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. Four seed Arkansas defeated the Aggies 53-48 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 50.1% (New Mexico State 33, Arkansas 32, 8:06 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: The WAC champs took down UConn in Spherical 1 for the college’s first NCAA event win since 1993 (and since that was vacated, its first NCAA-recognized win since 1970), and there was a glimmer within the second half the place it regarded just like the Aggies may be part of the ranks of the double-digit seeds within the Candy 16. A 20-6 run for NSMU that spanned the tip of the primary and starting of the second halves, coupled with some completely dreadful capturing from the Razorbacks (27.5% from 2, 18.8%), meant this was a recreation — principally an unwatchable one — till the late levels, however the Aggies could not make sufficient pictures in what turned out to be the final game of the Chris Jans era in Las Cruces. “We thought this staff had an opportunity to make a type of particular runs, but it surely simply did not occur,” Jans stated afterward.

43. Vermont Catamounts (No. 13 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. Four seed Arkansas defeated the Catamounts 75-71 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 58.3% (Vermont 39, Arkansas 36, 15:36 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: The Catamounts entered the event as winners of 22 of their previous 23, had destroyed the sphere en path to an America East event title, and had been a preferred first-round upset alternative. John Becker’s staff nearly delivered on that billing, holding a second-half lead earlier than faltering down the stretch. A 7-of-13 efficiency from the foul line was an unexpected problem for a staff that shot 75.6% there throughout the convention portion of its season. “We want we might have shot free throws higher,” Becker stated. “We want we might have rebounded a little bit bit higher on the finish, however these guys left all of it out on the court docket in opposition to a extremely, actually good Arkansas staff.”

42. Loyola Chicago Ramblers (No. 10 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 7 seed Ohio State defeated the Ramblers 54-41 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 55.0% (Loyola Chicago 5, Ohio State 2, 15:58 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: A program with a Last 4 look and a visit to the Candy 16 in its latest rearview was by no means going to be content material with a first-round exit, and a gap matchup with a hot-and-cold Ohio State staff appeared to supply a very good alternative for the Ramblers to advance. However Loyola shot the ball poorly (26.8% from 2, 28.6% from Three and 30% from the free throw line) and was saved at arm’s size by the Buckeyes all through, denying coach Drew Valentine his first tourney win and bringing the profession of fifth-year star Lucas Williamson (Four factors on 1-of-10 capturing) to a less-than-stellar shut. “I imply, I am disillusioned in myself,” Williamson stated. “I do not really feel like I performed to the usual that I put myself at.”

41. San Francisco Dons (No. 10 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. 7 seed Murray State defeated the Dons 92-87 (OT) within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 64.8% (San Francisco 48, Murray State 45, 13:50 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: It was a historic season for the Dons, within the NCAA area for the primary time since 1998 and with a strong probability of successful a event recreation for the primary time since manner again in 1979. USF was proper there with fellow mid-major stalwart Murray State, scratching and clawing again from a nine-point deficit because the clock ticked under 4 minutes to power extra time on a game-tying Three by fifth-year star Jamaree Bouyea. One other Bouyea Three had the Dons up 84-83 contained in the two-minute mark of extra time, which is the place issues started to come back aside. Empty journeys and higher free throw capturing by the Racers helped deny Todd Golden’s group a visit to the second spherical — the place the Dons would have performed 15-seed Saint Peter’s. Though unknown on the time, it was the ultimate recreation on the USF sideline for Golden, hired away by Florida a day after the loss to Murray State. A missed alternative for the Dons, and the tip of an period.

40. Indiana Hoosiers (No. 12 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s defeated the Hoosiers 82-53 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 58.1% (Indiana 18, Saint Mary’s 14, 9:50 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: It did not finish in such a enjoyable manner for Indiana, a legendary program that actually does not aspire to first-round NCAA event exits. However on steadiness, it was unattainable for an affordable particular person to take a look at IU’s season and never come away inspired. After struggling by way of the misbegotten Archie Miller period, Hoosiers followers acquired to look at first-year head coach Mike Woodson lead IU to its first event since 2016 thanks partially to impressed wins over Michigan and Illinois within the Massive Ten tourney. The First 4 win over Wyoming saved the great occasions rolling earlier than they unraveled in Portland in opposition to the Gaels, in what was Indiana’s fifth recreation in seven days and turned out to be its most decisive event loss in program historical past. Nonetheless, it was a commendable run that hints at higher issues to come back, and on the finish of the day Indiana did give us one of many high moments in cheerleader historical past:

39. Colorado State Rams (No. 6 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 11 seed Michigan defeated the Rams 75-63 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 83.6% (Colorado State 28, Michigan 13, 4:48 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: You might need forgiven a CSU fan for glancing forward within the bracket because the clock ticked close to halftime in opposition to Michigan. The Rams appeared to be in full management in opposition to a Wolverines staff that had underachieved all season, bombing eight first-half 3s and searching the veteran, cohesive group they’d been for many of the season. Then got here the second half. A 15-5 Michigan run turned a 44-38 Colorado State lead right into a 53-49 deficit, and the Wolverines would by no means path the remainder of the best way. The 3s Niko Medved’s squad made within the first half stopped dropping — the Rams shot 4-of-15 from past the arc over the second 20 minutes. It was a tricky approach to exit for a staff that earned the very best seed in Colorado State historical past.

“I believed the sport was within the steadiness,” Medved stated. “We had our possibilities. Michigan was the higher staff as we speak, clearly within the second half.”

38. South Dakota State Jackrabbits (No. 13 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. Four seed Windfall defeated the Jackrabbits 66-57 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 51.9% (South Dakota State 11, Windfall 7, 15:23 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: It isn’t usually {that a} 13-seed presents as a favourite over a 4-seed, however did not it really feel like all the world was selecting South Dakota State (30-Four and on a 21-game successful streak getting into the sport) to advance over Windfall? It actually felt that approach to Windfall coach Ed Cooley, who stated on the eve of the event: “No person in America has given us an opportunity in opposition to South Dakota State. Not one particular person.” OK, in order that wasn’t true, however in a recreation that a minimum of felt like a coin flip on some stage, the Jackrabbits got here up brief. SDSU fell behind 43-29 within the second half earlier than making a recreation of it, drawing inside 60-57 on a Baylor Scheierman layup with slightly below a minute to play. However an premature foul by Douglas Wilson on a Jared Bynum 3-point try — Bynum would make all three free throws — successfully busted quite a lot of pro-Jackrabbit brackets.

37. Marquette Golden Eagles (No. 9 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. Eight seed North Carolina defeated the Golden Eagles 95-63 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 43.0% (Marquette 6, North Carolina 5, 17:12 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: Marquette wasn’t actually speculated to be right here — the Golden Eagles had been picked to complete ninth of 11 within the preseason Massive East ballot — so on some stage the Golden Eagles had already gained earlier than they reached Dickie’s Area in Fort Price, Texas, to play the Tar Heels. On one other stage, Marquette followers who remembered this system’s 9 NCAA event wins from 2008 by way of 2013 had been greater than able to expertise that feeling once more, and so essentially the most lopsided loss in an Eight vs. 9 recreation because the NCAA event bracket expanded in 1985 didn’t fairly hit the candy spot. Marquette had no reply for Caleb Love and Brady Manek, who mixed for 11 3s, and was additionally manhandled 52-37 on the boards. Because it turned out, North Carolina would grow to be the third Marquette conqueror within the Golden Eagles’ previous 4 NCAA tournaments to succeed in the Last 4.

“It wasn’t our day,” first-year coach Shaka Good stated. “We didn’t play with the extent of violence we wanted on the defensive finish to remove the issues North Carolina wished.”

36. Ohio State Buckeyes (No. 7 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Villanova defeated the Buckeyes 71-61 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 31.9% (Villanova 60, Ohio State 58, 5:41 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: After final 12 months’s gorgeous first-round loss to Oral Roberts, it needed to be good for OSU to exorcize the demon within the type of a first-round win over Loyola Chicago. However the good emotions had been fleeting for a gaggle that got here up brief in delivering Ohio State to the second weekend for the primary time since 2013, a gaggle that had expertise and a few good wins (Duke, at Illinois) however wasn’t constant sufficient when it mattered. After pulling inside hanging distance of Villanova close to the five-minute mark, OSU merely stopped scoring, going 1-of-7 from the ground, 1-of-Three from the free throw line and committing three turnovers in crunch time. All of which serves as prelude to what will probably be a crucial offseason and 2022-23 marketing campaign for head coach Chris Holtmann.

“Obtained to maintain getting right here, acquired to continue to grow,” Holtmann stated afterward. “You retain getting right here, you get right here sufficient, you get right here constantly, and it’ll occur.”

35. Texas Longhorns (No. 6 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. Three seed Purdue defeated the Longhorns 81-71 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 53.1% (Texas 14, Purdue 8, 15:07 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: After its rent of Chris Beard and unprecedented switch portal success this previous offseason, Texas entered 2021-22 with real looking expectations of reaching New Orleans and the Last 4. And although the season had its highs — an 81-73 first-round win over Virginia Tech that gave this system its first NCAA event win since 2014 was one in all them — the Longhorns by no means fairly caught hearth. The loss to Purdue was a part of a concluding stretch of basketball that noticed Beard & Co. go 4-6 of their remaining 10 video games. Of their remaining chapter, the Longhorns despatched the Boilermakers to the road 46 occasions to Texas’ 12 journeys to the charity stripe, denying Texas an opportunity to face 15-seed Saint Peter’s — which might stun Purdue within the subsequent spherical.

“We simply wanted to make a pair extra performs down the stretch,” Beard stated afterward. “How will I bear in mind this recreation? Time tells that. Let’s have a look at what Purdue does.”

34. Illinois Fighting Illini (No. Four seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 5 seed Houston defeated the Combating Illini 68-53 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 43.4% (Illinois 40, Houston 40, 11:26 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: Illinois was one other proficient staff with mega-expectations getting into the season, and the Combating Illini’s march to a Massive Ten regular-season title provided hope that maybe Brad Underwood’s crew was peaking on the proper time. However the Illini had been shaky in a one-point first-round win over Chattanooga they had been fortunate to outlive, after which by no means actually regarded like the higher staff in getting ousted by Houston to overlook the second weekend once more. The Alfonso Plummer Three that tied the sport 40-40 was the final time Illinois was even with the Cougars, who completed the sport on a 14-Four run in opposition to an Illini staff that shot 34% from the ground.

“We did not shoot it very nicely,” Underwood stated. “We performed nicely sufficient; we did not shoot it very nicely. You have a look at our two video games right here, and we simply shot it horrible.”

33. Michigan Wolverines (No. 11 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Villanova defeated the Wolverines 63-55 within the Candy 16

Peak win chance: 39.6% (Michigan 22, Villanova 20, 3:59 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: It was a wierd season for Michigan, one which noticed the Wolverines start the season as a perceived Last 4 candidate earlier than falling into an unforeseen rut, taking part in a central position in one of many ugly moments of the 2021-22 season, then scratching and clawing their approach to an 11-seed upfront of an encouraging run to the second weekend. Maybe Juwan Howard’s group was taking part in its finest basketball when it mattered most? Because it occurred, Michigan performed Villanova powerful into the late levels, pulling inside 54-50 on a pair of Terrance Williams II free throws with 3:19 remaining, however could not make sufficient large pictures down the stretch in opposition to a veteran Wildcats group.

“There have been occasions after we had been counted out,” Howard stated of the season. “There have been occasions when individuals did not really feel we deserved to be right here, and these guys rose to the event and proved they earned the suitable to be within the NCAA event.”

32. Miami Hurricanes (No. 10 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Kansas defeated the Hurricanes 76-50 within the Elite Eight

Peak win chance: 53.4% (Miami 35, Kansas 29, halftime)

How a lot it damage: The Hurricanes made program historical past in 2021-22, reaching the Elite Eight for the primary time ever after being picked 12th within the 15-team ACC within the preseason. By any cheap measure, it was a terrific season for Jim Larranaga’s squad, but it surely did not make the tip any much less painful. The Canes regarded like the higher staff over the primary 20 minutes in opposition to Kansas, earlier than getting steamrollered in a second half that noticed them get outscored 47-15. Miami made simply 6 of 28 area objectives within the second half and was outrebounded 25-11. “We began to play the rating, not the sport,” Miami ahead Sam Waardenburg stated.

31. Auburn Tigers (No. 2 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 10 seed Miami defeated the Tigers 79-61 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 83.4% (Auburn 0, Miami 0, 20:00 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: Auburn gained the SEC regular-season title, frolicked at No. 1 this season and had a few possible first-round picks in Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler, so falling in need of the second weekend positively damage. That stated, these Tigers will in all probability be remembered as a gaggle that began taking over water close to the tip, going a middling 6-5 of their remaining 11 video games together with losses to Florida and Texas A&M groups that did not make the NCAA event. Auburn regarded like the higher staff at no level within the Miami recreation, trailing wire to wire and by no means getting Smith and Kessler (a mixed 3-of-22 from the ground for 12 factors) untracked in opposition to the Hurricanes’ guard-heavy assault.

“It is the primary time that we acquired it handed to us,” Auburn coach Bruce Pearl stated afterward. “We did not know learn how to reply.”

30. Arkansas Razorbacks (No. Four seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Duke defeated the Razorbacks 78-69 within the Elite Eight

Peak win chance: 48.0% (Arkansas 9, Duke 6, 15:23 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: Expectations soared by way of the roof when the Razorbacks ended event favourite Gonzaga’s quest for a title within the Candy 16. For the second straight 12 months, 40 minutes stood between Arkansas and its first Last 4 journey since 1995, and for the second straight 12 months Eric Musselman’s group battled however fell brief in its second tough recreation in three days. A 10-Zero second-half run that pushed the deficit from 53-48 to 63-48 was successfully the ultimate cease for the Muss Bus. A Razorbacks staff that led the SEC in defensive effectivity could not get sufficient stops in opposition to a Duke staff with 5 possible NBA draft picks — the Blue Devils shot 29-of-53 (54.7%) from the ground. “We acquired beat by a greater staff as we speak,” Musselman stated. “Thought Duke was phenomenal. Could be shocked if they are not taking part in to win a nationwide championship.”

29. UCLA Bruins (No. Four seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. Eight seed North Carolina defeated the Bruins 73-66 within the Candy 16

Peak win chance: 83.0% (UCLA 56, North Carolina 51, 8:39 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: The ache for the Bruins didn’t lie in the truth that this was UCLA’s most proficient or constant staff — the lucky-to-survive nature of a first-round win over Akron ought to have made that clear. Quite a lot of the ache got here in the best way the bracket arrange for Mick Cronin’s group, which might have seen 15-seed Saint Peter’s subsequent and appeared to be in an affordable quantity of management over No. Eight seed North Carolina throughout varied factors within the matchup. A made layup by Tyger Campbell had UCLA up 64-61 because the clock ticked under two minutes, which was the place Caleb Love took over with back-to-back 3s that tied the sport after which put the Tar Heels forward to remain. Again-to-back Last 4 journeys wouldn’t be within the playing cards for a program nonetheless seeking that elusive 12th title.

“My message to them is you may’t let individuals say, nicely, hey, you didn’t win all of it this 12 months or your season just isn’t a hit,” Cronin stated. “That is a ridiculous assertion. Though I got here to UCLA to attempt to get this 12th title and I am not going to go away till I do.”

28. Providence Friars (No. Four seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Kansas defeated the Friars 66-61 within the Candy 16

Peak win chance: 54.0% (Windfall 48, Kansas 47, 5:43 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: Windfall answered its critics primarily till the dying moments of its season, successful a Massive East regular-season title it wasn’t speculated to win after which reaching the NCAA event’s second weekend — for the primary time since 1997 — when the Friars had been a extremely popular upset decide within the first two rounds. There was a glimmer of time within the Candy 16 when it regarded just like the enjoyable may proceed for Ed Cooley’s tough-minded group, when a made Noah Horchler layup punctuated a 25-11 run that put Windfall forward by a degree because the clock neared the five-minute mark. However KU heated up from there, the Friars acquired burned by some empty journeys and Jayhawks rebounds, and the street ended for Cooley’s staff in Chicago.

“These children — males — battled by way of quite a lot of adversity,” Cooley stated. “I am not going to let our males’s heads be down. This was one hell of a season, and we acquired beat by an amazing staff.”

27. Saint Peter’s Peacocks (No. 15 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. Eight seed North Carolina defeated the Peacocks 69-49 within the Elite Eight

Peak win chance: 18.2% (Saint Peter’s 0, North Carolina 0, 20:00 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: It was among the many nice Cinderella runs in NCAA event historical past, as a resource-challenged MAAC college beat two applications that nobody would have been shocked to see within the 2022 Last 4 — Kentucky and Purdue — together with a very good Murray State staff to grow to be the bottom seed ever to succeed in an Elite Eight. There have been no ethical victories for Shaheen Holloway’s staff — the Peacocks had each perception they may beat North Carolina and make it to New Orleans — however the ache needed to be tempered considerably by the truth that UNC was clearly the higher staff on this present day. Saint Peter’s did not shoot it nicely (30% for the sport) and did not have a constant reply for large males Armando Bacot and Brady Manek, who mixed to make 15 of 26 pictures in a recreation the Heels led by double digits for the ultimate 30-plus minutes. Stated Holloway, who would take the Seton Hall job as anticipated days later: “We’ll stroll out of right here the identical manner we walked in — with our head up.”

26. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (No. 11 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 11 seed Notre Dame defeated the Scarlet Knights 89-87 (2OT) within the First 4

Peak win chance: 81.9% (Rutgers 79, Notre Dame 77, 0:10 mark of first extra time)

How a lot it damage: It was a shot which may have lived perpetually in Rutgers folklore. The three made by Paul Mulcahy on the left wing with 8.6 seconds to play within the first extra time put the Scarlet Knights forward 79-77 on Notre Dame and had them one cease from a first-round date with Alabama. However Combating Irish guard Blake Wesley drove the lane for a layup to ship the sport to a second additional session, which was the place a Paul Atkinson Jr. putback with 1.Four seconds left broke an 87-87 tie and ended the Scarlet Knights’ quest to win tourney video games in back-to-back seasons. Going out to Notre Dame simply as Saint Patrick’s Day had begun on the East Coast might need appeared becoming to some, but it surely was merely painful for Rutgers. “They had been one possession higher,” Rutgers coach Steve Pikiell lamented.

25. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (No. 11 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. Three seed Texas Tech defeated the Combating Irish 59-53 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 67.5% (Notre Dame 51, Texas Tech 49, 2:36 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: One other ACC assembly between Notre Dame and Duke regarded awfully near coming to fruition within the second spherical, because the Combating Irish held a three-point lead with below two minutes to play and simply wanted to complete. However the Pink Raiders merely managed the endgame higher, grabbing a number of, crucial offensive rebounds and canning all eight of their free throws within the remaining two minutes as Notre Dame didn’t make a area objective over the ultimate 3:11. The loss denied Notre Dame a visit to what would have been its first second weekend since 2016, although tourney wins over Rutgers and Alabama will probably be regarded again upon with fondness.

“We emptied the tank bodily, not solely as we speak, however beginning on Wednesday night time,” coach Mike Brey stated afterward. “And so they form of emptied it emotionally in there. We had quite a lot of tears in there. As a coach you look and go, everyone was absolutely invested.”

24. Houston Cougars (No. 5 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Villanova defeated the Cougars 50-44 within the Elite Eight

Peak win chance: 66.2% (Houston 0, Villanova 0, 20:00 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: Regardless of their standing as a 5-seed, the Cougars had been a preferred decide to succeed in the 2022 Last 4 among the many analytics crowd, and nothing they did in decisive wins over UAB, Illinois and top-seeded Arizona dispelled the notion that Kelvin Sampson’s group was able to such a run. Then got here the Villanova recreation, the place the Coogs misplaced a rock battle during which they shot it very poorly — 16-of-37 from 2 (43.2%) and 1-of-20 from 3 (5%). That Houston was right here in any respect after shedding key gamers Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark to damage early within the season was an achievement, not {that a} staff that reached the Last 4 final season wished to listen to any of that.

“I am disillusioned we misplaced, I am not disillusioned in the rest,” Sampson stated. “Groups that cry, care. There have been quite a lot of tears in that locker room … I knew it was going to take a very good staff to beat us, and a very good staff did.”

23. USC Trojans (No. 7 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 10 seed Miami defeated the Trojans 68-66 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 68.3% (USC 37, Miami 33, 14:22 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: USC got here out on the enterprise finish of one of many heart-stoppers of the primary spherical, as Miami’s Charlie Moore broke a 66-all tie with a pair of free throws with three seconds to play, and Drew Peterson’s buzzer heave hit the backboard and clanged off the entrance rim to disclaim the Trojans the power to advance. What’s going to in all probability be remembered most by USC followers are some calls and non-calls that went against the Trojans late, together with an out-of-bounds ruling which may have been known as in error and a possible and-1 alternative for Peterson on a layup with 14 seconds to play. “Once you’re speaking a few one-possession recreation, it’s totally disappointing to lose like that, however they fought again and gave it their finest shot,” USC coach Andy Enfield stated.

22. Colgate Raiders (No. 14 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. Three seed Wisconsin defeated the Raiders 67-60 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 61.9% (Colgate 52, Wisconsin 48, 10:40 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: The Raiders had one of many brutal duties of the primary spherical, a matchup with Wisconsin at Milwaukee’s Fiserv Discussion board that was primarily a house recreation for the Badgers. However the Patriot League champs gave Wisconsin all it might deal with, with Tucker Richardson (15 factors on 5-of-10 from past the arc) main the 3-point brigade in a recreation that regarded prefer it had critical upset potential. However Johnny Davis and Co. lastly awoke, happening a 17-Four run — Davis scored 12 factors within the flurry — that turned a 52-48 lead right into a 65-56 deficit and primarily ended the Raiders’ bid.

“I do not assume I’ve ever been in an atmosphere for faculty basketball higher than the one tonight,” Colgate’s Matt Langel stated. “I do know that it sometimes does not occur in NCAA event video games, however similar to final 12 months after we performed in a bubble and had an extremely distinctive expertise, that is one which our guys — though it doesn’t sit nicely proper now — will bear in mind for an extended, very long time.”

21. Davidson Wildcats (No. 10 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. 7 seed Michigan State defeated the Wildcats 74-73 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 78.5% (Davidson 56, Michigan State 51, 6:52 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: The Atlantic 10 regular-season champs might nearly style their first NCAA event win because the Steph Curry period when Michigan State all of the sudden began to play a few of the finest offensive basketball we noticed from the Spartans all season. A 10-Zero MSU run turned the Wildcats’ 56-51 lead right into a 61-56 deficit and Bob McKillop’s crew might by no means fairly get again even in an eventual one-point loss. Among the many unhappy Wildcats was Davidson guard Foster Loyer (12 factors), who was going through his former staff after spending three years on the MSU roster.

“I am heartbroken for our guys,” McKillop stated. “We acquired into the middle of the factor and we fought. We acquired knocked down a couple of occasions. We stayed within the heart ring and we saved combating. We simply ran out of time.”

20. Murray State Racers (No. 7 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s defeated the Racers 70-60 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 80.7% (Murray State 0, Saint Peter’s 0, 19:41 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: After outlasting San Francisco in extra time within the first spherical, the Racers needed to really feel nice about their possibilities to maneuver on to the Candy 16 whereas using a 21-game successful streak and going through a 15-seed in Saint Peter’s. However Murray State got here up brief in its quest to succeed in the primary Candy 16 at school historical past. The Peacocks went forward 23-21 on a pair of free throws on the 5:23 mark of the primary half and led the remainder of the best way, with Matt McMahon’s group getting outmuscled on the glass (38-31) and never getting sufficient from stars KJ Williams and Tevin Brown (a mixed 7-of-26 capturing together with 3-of-13 from 3). The loss additionally marked the tip of an period, as McMahon would subsequently be named head coach at LSU.

19. UConn Huskies (No. 5 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. 12 seed New Mexico State defeated the Huskies 70-63 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 90.4% (UConn 0, New Mexico State 0, 19:25 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: It was the second at which the entire progress the UConn basketball program has made in 4 seasons below Dan Hurley — progress that has been simple — gave approach to one other query about when this program will take the following step again towards being a nationwide contender. The 2022 event marked the second straight one-and-done exhibiting by the hands of a worse seed — Maryland beat UConn in a 10 vs. 7 recreation final season — and the most recent one was pulled off in considerably methodical vogue by an NMSU staff that led by 10 at halftime and by no means actually blinked when UConn chipped away on the lead within the second half. Teddy Allen (37 factors) finally proved unsolvable for Hurley & Co., who will undoubtedly be laser-focused on an NCAA event win in 2023. “It is crushing to see your guys not have the ability to get the enjoyment of that subsequent recreation and the buildup,” Hurley stated. “It sucks.”

18. Memphis Tigers (No. 9 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Gonzaga defeated the Tigers 82-78 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 77.0% (Memphis 43, Gonzaga 31, 19:21 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: Memphis entered its first NCAA event below Penny Hardaway as one of many area’s intriguing groups, a gaggle that discovered itself over the latter levels of the season and was proficient sufficient to make a run. After dealing with Boise State in Recreation 1, an upset was brewing in Portland because the Tigers managed the primary half. However the Zags got here alive after halftime, outscoring Memphis 30-14 over a 10-minute stretch to point out why they entered the occasion because the NCAA event favourite. An lack of ability to gradual Drew Timme, who had 21 of his 25 factors within the second half, was finally the Tigers’ undoing. After the near-miss that denied Memphis its first journey to the second weekend since 2009, it needed to sting a bit to look at Arkansas end the job and usher Gonzaga from the event days later.

17. Tennessee Volunteers (No. Three seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 11 seed Michigan defeated the Volunteers 76-68 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 85.2% (Tennessee 60, Michigan 54, 7:57 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: The that means of the NCAA event and the ache related to shedding in it was etched everywhere in the face of Tennessee guard Kennedy Chandler, a probable first-round NBA draft decide who was devastated to see the Vols fall in need of the second weekend. Chandler’s postgame embrace with Michigan coach Juwan Howard went viral and epitomized the best way it ended for a Tennessee staff that appeared to be in management a few half-hour earlier. However Tennessee went ice-cold after going up 60-54, because the Wolverines’ Eli Brooks outscored UT 11-Eight on his personal and despatched Rick Barnes’ squad to an earlier exit than Chandler or anybody else anticipated.

“We had larger expectations, however credit score to Michigan — they performed higher basketball for 40 minutes,” Tennessee’s Josiah-Jordan James stated. “It positively hurts. It isn’t a very good feeling being up right here proper now on the shedding finish.”

16. Creighton Bluejays (No. 9 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Kansas defeated the Bluejays 79-72 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 45.4% (Kansas 73, Creighton 72, 1:20 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: Kansas will play for the nationwide championship on Monday, however let the report replicate that the Jayhawks had been a whisker from not even reaching the second weekend. When David McCormack missed a shot with 1:20 to play, Creighton had the ball down 73-72 and a really actual probability to ship KU again to Lawrence if the Bluejays might deal with the endgame. The second turned out to be only a bit too large for Greg McDermott’s scrappy group, who missed its remaining three pictures and dedicated two turnovers to forestall the upset and a second straight journey to the second weekend for CU. I believe this group’s acquired quite a lot of hearth in them,” stated Creighton’s Ryan Hawkins. “I could not be prouder of how we completed the season out.”

15. Baylor Bears (No. 1 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. Eight seed North Carolina defeated the Bears 93-86 (OT) within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 88.3% (Baylor 4, North Carolina 0, 18:27 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: The defending nationwide champs regarded lifeless to rights halfway by way of the second half, when a Brady Manek Three put the Tar Heels up 67-42 and regarded to ship the Bears into hibernation. Then Manek was ejected on a controversial flagrant-2, Scott Drew’s staff amped up its defensive strain, and Baylor went on a tremendous run to tie the sport at 80-80 and ship it to extra time. That the Bears ran out of fuel in OT was the one factor that saved the sport from being an all-timer, and you may determine there will probably be some residual sting in the truth that North Carolina has gone on to win three extra video games and can play for the nationwide title on Monday night time.

14. Texas Tech Red Raiders (No. Three seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Duke defeated the Pink Raiders 78-73 within the Candy 16

Peak win chance: 77.2% (Texas Tech 33, Duke 26, 0:52 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: The Pink Raiders had been a slight favourite over Duke as they headed to San Francisco, a bodily powerful, defensive-minded staff that regarded like a tough matchup for the Blue Devils. And Mark Adams’ group was actually the higher staff for the primary 20 minutes, till the Blue Devils began utilizing their very own measurement with Mark Williams (16 factors) and Paolo Banchero (22 factors), level guard Jeremy Roach (15 factors) made some large pictures, and Duke ended up with 49 second-half factors and a gritty victory that allowed Coach Okay to play on.

“I am so grateful that I used to be capable of coach these guys and the remaining on this staff,” stated Adams, who led this system to 27 wins in his first 12 months as head coach in Lubbock. “Simply so particular. I am simply so unhappy that we now have to see this season come to an finish as a result of we wish to maintain … taking part in.”

13. Michigan State Spartans (No. 7 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Duke defeated the Spartans 85-76 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 74.9% (Michigan State 70, Duke 65, 5:10 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: For a second, it regarded like Coach Okay would exit by the hands of one other legend and Tom Izzo would get to the second weekend with one other probability to succeed in the Last 4. MSU was coming off a tremendous efficiency to take down Davidson, Duke was nonetheless the staff that suffered troubling latest losses to North Carolina and Virginia Tech, and because the clock ticked inside 5 minutes it appeared that the event would take a dramatic flip in Greenville. However Duke wakened, and never for the final time on this event, ending the sport on a 20-6 run that noticed MSU’s occasional issues round capturing and turnovers reemerge at precisely the fallacious time. In acknowledging his remaining recreation in opposition to frequent combatant Mike Krzyzewski, Izzo stated: “You possibly can bear in mind this recreation in quite a lot of methods. My manner of remembering it will not be fairly as fulfilling, however it will likely be respectful.”

12. Chattanooga Mocs (No. 13 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. Four seed Illinois defeated the Mocs 54-53 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 82.5% (Chattanooga 40, Illinois 29, 17:26 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: As heartbreakers go, this one was a doozy. The Southern Convention champion Mocs raced out to a 20-6 lead, took a few Illinois punches and recovered to construct a double-digit second-half benefit, then surrendered the lead again to Illinois within the remaining minute earlier than falling once they missed a pair of recreation winners within the closing seconds. The sport would mark the tip of an period for Chattanooga, as coach Lamont Paris would settle for the South Carolina job days later.

11. TCU Horned Frogs (No. 9 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Arizona defeated the Horned Frogs 85-80 (OT) within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 71.5% (TCU 75, Arizona 72, 0:37 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: TCU destroyed Seton Corridor within the first spherical however was removed from content material with this system’s first NCAA event win since 1987, and gave top-ranked Arizona all the pieces it had in a bid to succeed in the second weekend. Down 67-58 because the clock ticked below seven minutes in regulation, Jamie Dixon’s staff not solely closed the hole however put itself in place to win with a 17-5 run punctuated by an Eddie Lampkin (20 factors, 14 rebounds) put-back on the 37-second mark. However a Bennedict Mathurin Three pressured extra time, and the Horned Frogs could not make sufficient pictures in extra time to hold this system to what would have been its deepest run since 1968.

“This season was all the pieces for us as a result of we weren’t even anticipated to be right here,” stated ahead Chuck O’Bannon Jr. “And for us to win our first recreation and be that shut with the No. 1 seed simply reveals that we now have a bunch of men with quite a lot of grit.”

10. Akron Zips (No. 13 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. Four seed UCLA defeated the Zips 57-53 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 83.9% (Akron 49, UCLA 42, 5:31 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: John Groce was again on the NCAA event stage for the primary time since main Illinois there again in 2013, and he appeared intent on sticking round some time when his staff completely outplayed UCLA for many of the recreation’s first 35 minutes. Akron’s failure to complete the job was rooted in two issues: the Zips struggled mightily to make a shot over the ultimate 5 minutes, once they scored simply 4 factors, they usually additionally gave the Bruins manner too many second-chance alternatives to maintain their hopes alive. All of it amounted to a really powerful exit for the MAC champs.” I believed we had an opportunity to win it,” Groce stated. “I believed in some methods and points deserved to win it. However that is not the best way it really works typically.”

9. Arizona Wildcats (No. 1 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 5 seed Houston defeated the Wildcats 72-60 within the Candy 16

Peak win chance: 41.7% (Arizona 0, Houston 0, 20:00 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: The seeds of this one appeared to be planted within the earlier recreation, a contest that noticed the Wildcats dominated on the boards in opposition to TCU however nonetheless handle to flee with an extra time victory. Since Houston was a greater rebounding and defensive staff than TCU, it did not bode nicely, and lots of the fears concerning the problem of the matchup for Arizona would find yourself coming true. Tommy Lloyd’s squad really did out-rebound Houston, however U of A by no means regarded comfy offensively and shot 18-of-54 (33.3%) from the ground. The Wildcats acquired inside 42-40 on a Dalen Terry Three on the 13:33 mark of the second half however by no means acquired nearer, ending the in any other case extraordinarily encouraging first 12 months of the Lloyd period in Tucson on a excessive notice.

“I believe we actually constructed some foundational items this 12 months which might be actually going to serve us nicely transferring ahead,” Lloyd stated. “Extraordinarily pleased with the fellows. Extraordinarily pleased with the teaching workers. We bumped into a extremely good staff tonight that was just a bit bit an excessive amount of for us.”

8. Villanova Wildcats (No. 2 seed, South)

How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Kansas defeated the Wildcats 81-65 within the Last 4

Peak win chance: 49.6% (Villanova 0, Kansas 0, 20:00 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: How Villanova would fare with out injured guard Justin Moore was one of many large questions of Last 4 week, with most observers agreeing the Wildcats can be hard-pressed to beat a surging 1-seed at lower than full capability. And people evaluations proved prescient, as KU acquired up large early in a wire-to-wire win that by no means actually noticed the Jayhawks face critical hazard. Nova was not fairly itself on both facet of the ground, capturing simply 38.6% in a recreation performed with one fewer offensive possibility, and permitting Kansas to bomb 13 of 24 3s (54.2%) from the perimeter. Jay Wright’s staff had the briefest glimmer of creating it a recreation on the 6:10 mark of the second half, when a Jermaine Samuels 3-point play punctuated a 24-14 run that lowered a 16-point deficit to 6, at 64-58. However there can be too many empty journeys and never sufficient stops the remainder of the best way, because the Cats fell brief of their bid to ship Wright a 3rd nationwide championship.

7. Wisconsin Badgers (No. Three seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 11 seed Iowa State defeated the Badgers 54-49 within the second spherical

Peak win chance: 72.1% (Wisconsin 22, Iowa State 17, 4:59 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: It could not have arrange significantly better for the Badgers, who acquired to play two video games in opposition to double-digit seeds in entrance of an enormous partisan crowd at Milwaukee’s Fiserv Discussion board, however got here up brief in reaching the second weekend for what would have been the primary time since 2017. After needing a late flurry to take out Colgate within the first spherical, Greg Gard’s squad simply by no means caught hearth in opposition to ISU, capturing a depressing 14-of-47 from the ground (29.8%) together with 2-of-22 from 3-point vary (9.1%). In what was doubtless his remaining recreation with Wisconsin, All-American Johnny Davis scored 17 factors however was 4-of-16 from the ground together with 0-for-7 from 3. Had they gained, Wisconsin would have performed one other double-digit seed, Miami, in a regional semifinal in Chicago.

“They performed a extremely good strain protection,” Davis stated of the Cyclones. “They did a extremely good job of taking away passing lanes. I simply assume that we simply straight up missed pictures and did not share the ball the best way we had been speculated to.”

6. San Diego State Aztecs (No. Eight seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 9 seed Creighton defeated the Aztecs 72-69 (OT) within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 95.6% (San Diego State 62, Creighton 53, 3:19 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: 9-point leads with below three minutes to play are hardly insurmountable, however you’ll be hard-pressed to discover a much less doubtless candidate to blow such a lead than San Diego State. The Aztecs had been No. 2 within the nation in defensive effectivity this season — solely Texas Tech had a greater protection — however SDSU allowed the Bluejays to go on a 9-Zero run to finish regulation, and simply could not put Creighton away in extra time. San Diego State in all probability wins if it could make a shot — any shot — in these remaining three minutes of regulation, however Brian Dutcher’s squad got here up empty from the sphere, from the road and turned it over a bunch to maintain the door open. “It is the agony and ecstasy of March,” Dutcher stated. “I believed we competed at a excessive stage, put ourselves in place to win. To Creighton’s credit score, they closed the sport and beat us.”

5. Gonzaga Bulldogs (No. 1 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. Four seed Arkansas defeated the Bulldogs 74-68 within the Candy 16

Peak win chance: 91.6% (Gonzaga 5, Arkansas 0, 18:39 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: Even after a less-than-complete win over Georgia State within the first spherical and a comeback to outlive in opposition to Memphis within the second, Gonzaga remained the general favourite to win the NCAA event heading into the Candy 16. The Zags had been 28-3, with an All-American in Drew Timme and a possible No. 1 total decide in Chet Holmgren, and it simply felt like their 12 months to an amazing many observers. However the Muss Bus cared not for any such emotions, as Eric Musselman and Arkansas wore out the Zags defensively in one in all their worst offensive showings of the season. Foul bother for Holmgren and a nasty capturing night time from past the arc (5 of 21, 23.8%) helped create the 1-seed’s ouster. “All of the credit score goes to Arkansas,” stated Gonzaga coach Mark Few. “Their protection was powerful to get any rhythm in opposition to. To me that was the distinction within the recreation.”

4. Iowa Hawkeyes (No. 5 seed, Midwest)

How they misplaced: No. 12 seed Richmond defeated the Hawkeyes, 67-63 within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 82.1% (Iowa 39, Richmond 34, 16:23 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: Iowa followers who have not seen a visit to the second weekend since 1999 by no means are available in boastful concerning the Hawkeyes’ possibilities within the NCAA event, however needed to be a bit extra hopeful than regular getting into a first-round matchup with Richmond. In any case, this staff had been taking part in a few of the finest basketball within the nation because the occasion started, together with an exhilarating run to the Massive Ten event championship, with an All-American and future lottery decide in Keegan Murray main the best way. Perhaps, simply perhaps …

However Richmond was one other convention tourney champ trying to maintain the great occasions rolling, and it rode Jacob Gilyard (24 factors, 6 assists) and a few uncharacteristically poor Hawkeyes offense (together with 6-of-29 from 3) to a traditional 12-over-5 upset. “This recreation might be the worst recreation we performed all 12 months, and I do not assume it is shut, so it is positively not a very good feeling in our stomachs proper now,” Iowa guard Connor McCaffery stated afterward.

3. Purdue Boilermakers (No. Three seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s defeated the Boilermakers 67-64 within the Candy 16

Peak win chance: 93.7% (Purdue 7, Saint Peter’s 2, 17:52 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: Beat a 15-seed, get to the Elite Eight. That was the equation for an unquestionably proficient Purdue staff that had frolicked because the No. 1 staff within the nation earlier this season. Had the Boilermakers overwhelmed Saint Peter’s, the following opponent would have been 8-seed North Carolina, a staff Matt Painter’s group had already dealt with again in November, with the college’s first Last 4 journey since 1980 looming on the horizon. UNC, in fact, remains to be taking part in. For Purdue and its long-suffering followers, the ache is certain to linger.

It actually regarded just like the Boilermakers would survive, holding a 56-52 lead and the ball with two possibilities to increase it across the 4-minute mark. However Purdue got here up empty on the journey, Peacocks hero Doug Edert acquired fouled on a Three on the different finish (and made all three free throws, naturally) and Saint Peter’s remained in enterprise. Purdue would finally lose the sport on the opposing free throw line, watching the Peacocks sink all eight of their free throws within the remaining two minutes to make historical past and advance to the Elite Eight.

“We talked about treating them like the very best staff within the nation,” Boilermakers ahead Trevion Williams stated. “I do not assume everybody purchased into that.”

2. Kentucky Wildcats (No. 2 seed, East)

How they misplaced: No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s defeated the Wildcats 85-79 (OT) within the first spherical

Peak win chance: 95.7% (Kentucky 5, Saint Peter’s 2, 15:54 mark of first half)

How a lot it damage: Opinions diversified on whether or not this model of the Kentucky Wildcats had the products to get this system to its first Last 4 since 2015. Opinions did not fluctuate on whether or not Saint Peter’s may very well be the staff to finish UK’s season — few gave the notion a lot thought. When the clock ticked below Three minutes in regulation and Kentucky held a 68-62 lead, it regarded like John Calipari & Co. would survive. Once they blew that lead and opened the door for the Peacocks to power extra time, the prevailing thought was nonetheless that the Wildcats would survive. They did not, lacking pictures, turning the ball over and finally carrying one of many event’s stunning losses. That Saint Peter’s would win two extra video games and show the first-round end result was not a fluke didn’t actually quantity to a silver lining for an offended Massive Blue Nation. The staff that gained the East Area is an 8-seed that Kentucky beat by 29 factors in December and might win a nationwide championship Monday night time.

The defeat has given approach to what figures to be a really lengthy offseason in Lexington, the place Calipari’s approval score doesn’t determine to peak anytime quickly and each roster motion will probably be pored over with a very obsessive fervor. Kentucky has suffered previous embarrassments within the Calipari period, however this one is not going to be quickly forgotten.

1. Duke Blue Devils (No. 2 seed, West)

How they misplaced: No. Eight seed North Carolina defeated the Blue Devils 81-77 within the Last 4

Peak win chance: 81.4% (Duke 41, North Carolina 34, 18:39 mark of second half)

How a lot it damage: It could not presumably get extra painful than this, nor might the stakes have been larger for Duke. An opportunity to increase its season, and its coach’s storied Corridor of Fame profession, in opposition to a hated rival that ruined Mike Krzyzewski’s remaining recreation at Cameron Indoor Stadium lower than a month earlier than, within the first NCAA event assembly between the 2 groups, in a recreation Duke was favored to win, on the Last 4 stage. Only for good measure, throw in the truth that the sport was a tension-fest that went forwards and backwards and again once more within the remaining moments earlier than North Carolina lastly seized management with two Caleb Love free throws with eight seconds left. All NCAA event losses carry finality, however this one introduced epic finality on a scale that’s going to be tough to match in future tournaments.