USMNT World Cup qualifying roundtable Can injury-hit squad do what is required to achieve Qatar?

The U.S. males’s nationwide staff have had a attention-grabbing relationship with the World Cup. After showing in three of the primary 4 competitions (1930, 1950, 1954), the Yanks missed the following 9 earlier than returning, in 1990, because of a pivotal qualifying objective by Paul Caligiuri in Trinidad & Tobago. (You’ll be able to see the place that is going, proper?)

From there, the USMNT represented at each World Cup from 1994 to 2014, going so far as the quarterfinals in 2002… solely to infamously miss the 2018 version after failing to win in — you knew it was coming — Trinidad & Tobago. (They solely wanted a draw that evening!) That pivotal defeat in Couva reverberated across the hearts and minds of US followers till qualification for Qatar 2022 started, and with it a superb new era of American expertise. Regardless of the emergence of Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Sergino Dest and plenty of extra, their ticket to the World Cup this winter comes all the way down to the ultimate three video games, together with a sport towards Mexico within the fabled Azteca, and a possible winner-take-all conflict in Costa Rica.

– World Cup qualifying: CONCACAF standings
– 2022 World Cup: How the USMNT, Mexico can qualify
– Stream on ESPN+: FC Daily | Fútbol Americas
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With World Cup qualifying coming down to those three video games, ESPN’s Jeff Carlisle, Kyle Bonagura, Ryan O’Hanlon, Dan Hajducky and Invoice Connelly supply their solutions to the important questions we’re all asking ourselves this week.

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Is that this shaping up for one more Couva state of affairs?

Carlisle: I feel the potential for overconfidence, which was the actual perpetrator 4 years in the past, is decreased this time round. The U.S. is aware of how tough these three opponents — Mexico, Panama and Costa Rica — are, so the requisite focus and depth must be there.

Now, may the U.S. mess this up? Completely. However I feel this shall be down extra to the stress of the second and the standard of the opposition than the U.S. considering it has qualification within the bag.

Bonagura: It should not get that dicey, Jeff, nevertheless it’s definitely on the desk and it could be silly to write down off a repeat with the lesson from 2017 nonetheless contemporary. The sport to concurrently watch is Costa Rica at Canada. If Costa Rica wins (unlikely) that one, issues will get much more attention-grabbing.

O’Hanlon: In probably the most common sense, sure. Barring a win towards Mexico on the Azteca, the USMNT goes to want a consequence, on the street, of their final match of qualifying. The large distinction: This staff, even with the accidents, is manner higher than the 2017 staff that did not get a consequence on the street of their final match of qualifying.

Hajducky: Whoa, whoa, guys: I believed we weren’t going to invoke that title! Couva. Sneaky.

The Individuals’ monitor report in Mexico — 0-12-Three at Estadio Azteca in qualifying since 1949 — is stark. One level can be historic, three would provoke delirium. Canada, sans Alphonso Davies, will clinch computerized qualification with yet one more win; in the event that they achieve this towards Costa Rica on March 24, it may render USMNT’s tango with Los Ticos on March 30 a … sigh … Couva state of affairs. However that is assuming the U.S. do not take factors from Panama, at the moment within the playoff slot and squaring off towards already-eliminated Honduras and practically certified Canada on this last spherical. The Stars & Stripes get Panama on dwelling soil in Orlando, Florida, in an absolute must-win.

Going again to 2002 CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers, 1.Three factors per sport is the fewest an computerized qualifier has managed. Even with the brand new format (eight groups as a substitute of six, 14 video games every now), until one thing goes wildly amiss, the U.S. males (1.91 PPG) are above that threshold. Even when they lose all three matches, they’d have managed 1.5 factors per sport — adequate for computerized (or intercontinental) qualification in every of the previous two cycles.

For now, let’s breathe. Panic is reserved for March 30. (Have Taylor Twellman on standby simply in case.)

Connelly: Look, the nightmare definitely is not off the desk! Whereas the chances are definitely within the United States‘ favor heading into the ultimate three matches, the variety of accidents for this group heading into the ultimate matches is unimaginable. We’ll go the entire qualification interval with out ever seeing Christian Pulisic, Giovanni Reyna, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams and Sergino Dest on the pitch on the similar time, and that is completely unimaginable.

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Greater loss: Dest or McKennie?

Carlisle: OK, it is McKennie (no disrespect to Dest). Not solely will McKennie’s expertise be missed, however he is been the center and soul of this staff since getting back from his suspension final September. He has scored huge targets and offered an emotional enhance to his teammates on the sector. He is irreplaceable actually. Hopefully his teammates can mix to make up for his absence.

Bonagura: I hate to say it, however Jeff’s proper about McKennie! It isn’t shut — nobody else on the roster has had extra affect whereas they have been on the sector than the Juventus midfielder throughout qualifying, and the drop-off from him to whoever slots in is extra vital than when the U.S. performs Deandre Yedlin or Reggie Cannon instead of Dest.

O’Hanlon: Becoming a member of the refrain! McKennie all the best way. Throughout qualifying, he is second on the staff in photographs, anticipated targets, probabilities created, touches within the penalty space and passes into the penalty space. Oh yeah, and he is carried out all of that from midfield. There is no one else within the participant pool even remotely like him.

Hajducky: Here is a enjoyable be aware about Weston. Going again to Nov. 6, Juventus has misplaced one Serie A match he appeared in. One. The U.S. males are 5-1-1 with McKennie on-pitch in qualification. Dest has been nice, too, and McKennie is that this staff’s motor, however I will counsel a extra necessary absentee!

Shedding Matt Turner is arguably the most important tonal shift. Turner stored clear sheets towards Canada and Mexico within the 2021 Gold Cup, racked up 4 extra in eight World Cup qualifiers and stored Bosnia & Herzegovina off the scoreboard in a December pleasant. Absent Turner, it is unclear who’ll step in as of writing.

– USMNT questions for World Cup qualifying: Who replaces McKennie, more (E+)
– Scoring at the Azteca in a USMNT-Mexico match: What’s it like?

When he is wholesome, Zack Steffen may be, as Tim Howard mentioned in 2020, the “crown jewel” of this aspect. He is a peaceful, steadying presence on the again, however he has been injury-hampered and a yellow card on this slate means a one-game suspension. Ethan Horvath stored Liverpool off the scoreboard for 77 minutes in FA Cup motion Sunday, his solely loss in 2022 so far as Nottingham Forest’s starter. Gregg Berhalter appears to trace just lately that the sting is to Steffen. If the U.S. males emerge victorious at any level, whoever’s in internet may have been heroic.

Connelly: Cease it, Dan: it is simply McKennie. The U.S. is averaging 2.Three factors per sport with him (16 factors and a plus-7 objective differential in seven matches) and 1.Three with out him (5 factors and a plus-2 objective differential in 4 matches). He is been necessary in assault and completely important in stopping groups from transitioning into assault. He has been the staff’s most necessary participant, and he shall be missed.

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Who will rating the targets?

Carlisle: This query ought to strike terror, however truthfully, the U.S. has been fairly balanced by way of the place targets have come from in qualifying: Six from wingers, three from center-forwards, 4 from defenders and two out of central midfield (plus one personal objective). Given the struggles of the No.9s within the expertise pool and the lack of Brenden Aaronson to a knee damage, meaning extra onus on Christian Pulisic and Timothy Weah. Maybe Reyna will chip in, too, given his return to well being.

One other factor to think about is how the U.S. staff’s prowess on set items perked up towards Honduras. Getting extra manufacturing from there might be enormous.

Bonagura: With Pulisic in kind headed into this window, the expectation needs to be that he’ll carry the offense. With that established, it can most likely be somebody like Walker Zimmerman or Cannon who comes up with an necessary objective.

O’Hanlon: Gonna should be Pulisic and Weah, huh? With McKennie and Aaronson out (the Salzburg child is third on the staff in xG through the Octagonal), they’re probably the most dependable remaining performers in assault. Weah has been electrical in qualifying, whereas Pulisic is a beginning attacker for one of many 4 finest soccer groups on Earth. Throw in a couple of set items. and it is not as unhealthy because it appears!

Hajducky: Ah, that is the $2.5 million query, is not it? McKennie, Dest and Aaronson have created nearly 20% of USMNT probabilities in qualifying to this point. An assault seemingly with out all of them, and with a lot uncertainty elsewhere, is terrifying. The hope is that Reyna, Pulisic, Weah and Ricardo Pepi — the latter pair have seen inconsistent enjoying time just lately with Lille and FC Augsburg, respectively — seize the second, and it is one thing to behold.

The metaphysical weight of Pepi scoring a decisive objective towards Mexico, whom he snubbed when opting to play for the U.S., appears like a screenplay ready to occur.

Connelly: You would make the case that Pepi is due, and it was good to see Jordan Pefok again on the roster — he is been nice for Young Boys this season. However … the reply needs to be Pulisic, proper? Every little thing he is been via, with the doomed 2018 qualification and the accidents, has led to him coming via at precisely this second, proper? Possibly? Hopefully?

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Decide your XI for the Azteca and clarify

Carlisle: Horvath; Yedlin, Walker Zimmerman, Miles Robinson, Antonee Robinson; Musah, Adams, Kellyn Acosta; Pulisic, Pefok, Weah

To relaxation or to not relaxation? That’s the query. The collection of Horvath is all the way down to the truth that he is been enjoying greater than some other U.S. keeper, and likewise has good historical past towards Mexico. Yedlin’s expertise will get him the nod at right-back, and the identical is true for Acosta, who took half within the 1-1 draw on the Azteca over the past cycle, in midfield. That is going to be a grind-it-out affair, and Acosta is finest suited to that.

It has been steered that Adams be saved for Panama on condition that he is on a yellow card (and would face a one-game suspension if he picks up one other), however you then run the chance of him enjoying in just one match on this window if he is saved after which booked towards Panama. Aaronson’s absence means Weah will get the nod at one of many wing positions. No central striker has actually jumped out, however Pefok is in the most effective type of any of them, so he will get the nod up prime.

Bonagura: Steffen; Yedlin, M. Robinson, Zimmerman, A. Robinson; Adams; Musah, Luca De la Torre; Morris, Pefok, Pulisic

The concept the US ought to rotate on the Azteca to present the staff a greater shot at three factors in a extra pivotal — for qualification functions — sport towards Panama is totally logical. However with 5 subs obtainable, this additionally does not imply it must be a full second-choice XI. I might plan to sub in Reyna (in central midfield), Weah, Pepi/Ferreira with the thought they’ll begin in Orlando and earmark Acosta (for Adams) and one other participant (relying on the state of the sport) for taking part in time.

Additionally, let Yedlin empty the tank and use Cannon towards Panama.

O’Hanlon: Horvath; Yedlin, Zimmerman, M. Robinson, A. Robinson; Adams, Musah, Acosta; Pulisic, Ferreira, Weah

Jeff and I picked ours two weeks ago, however accidents to Dest and Aaronson necessitate a few tweaks. I might swap Yedlin in for Dest, and I might go along with Jesus Ferreira because the third attacker. He has been lighting it up in MLS, and he was — controversial opinion alert — nice in his begin towards El Salvador. His on-ball expertise dovetail actually properly with Pulisic’s world-class off-ball motion.

Hajducky: Steffen; Cannon, M. Robinson, Zimmerman, A. Robinson; Adams, Musah, Acosta; Pulisic, Pepi, Weah

Some mixture of Pulisic, Weah and Pepi up prime with Reyna approaching as a sub; in midfield, Adams and Yunus Musah more than likely stabilized by Acosta, the second-most-capped participant on this roster; within the again, Antonee and Miles Robinson, Zimmerman and Cannon, who has performed the complete 90 in every of Boavista‘s previous six league matches. My intestine’s on Steffen in internet, however I would not be stunned if Horvath’s kind towards Liverpool tilts the scales — particularly the gutty breakaway save to disclaim Roberto Firmino.

Connelly: Steffen; Yedlin, M. Robinson, Zimmerman, A. Robinson; Adams, Acosta, Cristian Roldan; Pulisic, Pepi, Morris

Berhalter tends to make fairly vital rotations from match to match, and truthfully, the second match of the window towards Panama might be crucial. Assuming you are not enjoying Reyna for 270 minutes in three matches, lean on some grizzled veterans (and Pepi) right here, then give gamers like Weah, Musah and Reyna longer runs within the second match.

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Which participant will Berhalter remorse not calling in?

Carlisle: For all of the speak about John Brooks, if Berhalter wasn’t going to go in that route, I am a bit stunned that Tim Ream did not get one other look given how nicely he performed in El Salvador in addition to for Fulham. Out of the three center-backs backing up Zimmerman and Miles Robinson — Aaron Long, Erik Palmer-Brown and James Sands — none of them have performed in a World Cup qualifier, and the stakes now could not be greater. Ream has the requisite expertise and management that would assist this staff navigate its manner via these three video games.

Bonagura: It is starting to appear like I am on an island with this, however Matthew Hoppe was the one attacking participant to make any type of optimistic impression within the Gold Cup and can be a invaluable asset on this window, particularly now that Aaronson is out.

O’Hanlon: Whereas the expertise pool is deeper than ever, the USMNT nonetheless is not near being flush sufficient to disregard a middle again who was beginning for a Champions League staff this season. Plus, not one of the different middle backs within the pool can move like Brooks. With out McKennie, Aaronson and Dest, Berhalter’s going to have to tug a pair new attacking levers, however he left this one in Wolfsburg.

Hajducky: Given the ballyhoo, it is easy to say Brooks, is not it? If Thursday in Mexico Metropolis turns bitter, dissent may attain a fever pitch. The U.S. are brief on attacking choices, and Josh Sargent has been influential for a woeful Norwich City. I might moderately have Sargent on the bench than at dwelling.

Connelly: I notice Brooks’ kind is not spectacular, however bringing in Lengthy and Palmer-Brown as a substitute of him appears bizarre, particularly with the journey to Azteca. Having that safety blanket would have been good.

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Three video games for the USMNT. What number of factors do they get?

Carlisle: They’re going to get 4 with a tie in Mexico and a win over Panama. That also won’t be sufficient to ensure one of many three computerized spots, in order that they’ll want some assist from Canada to take factors off of Costa Rica. In any other case they’re going to be headed to Qatar for a playoff.

Bonagura: Primarily based strictly on intestine feeling: lose at Mexico, win towards Panama, draw at Costa Rica, for 4 factors. This can be a staff that has the aptitude to get leads to each street video games, however the historic monitor report is hard to disregard.

O’Hanlon: Betting markets give Mexico a few 45% likelihood of successful, with 28% on a draw and 27% on a USMNT win. Anticipated factors from that, then, is slightly over one. For instance 2.5 for Panama — it is dwelling, and Panama shall be pushing for a win, which theoretically helps the U.S. — and 1.5 for Costa Rica. Add all of it up, and we have 5 anticipated factors — and a spot in Qatar.

Hajducky: Possibly I am being overly optimistic, however I am hoping for 4 factors. Hell, I am resorting to prayer for something non-zero. Mexico is shaping as much as be a heartbreaker, positive, however Panama on dwelling soil (in a stadium they’ve by no means misplaced in) is an crucial three factors. Nonetheless, Costa Rica may nonetheless be probably the most intriguing. The U.S. have solely dropped one of many previous six towards Los Ticos again to mid-2017. They’re, nevertheless, abysmal (and winless) in Costa Rica in World Cup qualifying. They should take most factors towards Panama in Orlando or March 30 is all-out mayhem, absent stars and nursing wounds.

Connelly: It appears like something between one and 9 is on the desk, yeah? Mexico is not precisely in nice kind, and the U.S. shall be favored towards Panama, however you’d like to have one thing loads nearer to your full-strength lineup obtainable. Alas, accidents stink, and it appears like 4 factors is someplace between practical and semi-optimistic. So 4.