Categories: Sports

Girls’s NCAA event 2022 knowledgeable predictions

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South Carolina has been the wire-to-wire No. 1 workforce this season and can begin the 2022 NCAA women’s tournament because the betting favorite and the workforce with one of the best probability to win the title in line with ESPN’s Basketball Energy Index. However are the Gamecocks the consensus favourite amongst our panel of ESPN consultants?

With a powerful group of challengers and coming off a loss within the SEC event last, South Carolina — the highest seed within the Greensboro Regional that has a 29% probability to win all of it, in line with the BPI — is aware of the trail to this system’s second NCAA championship shouldn’t be going to be a simple one. Nonetheless, the Gamecocks are motivated by final season’s near-miss in the national semifinals to eventual champion Stanford, and so they have a celebrity publish participant in Aliyah Boston, simply as they did with A’ja Wilson once they gained the 2017 title.

In the meantime, fellow No. 1 seed Stanford (Spokane Regional) hasn’t misplaced since Dec. 21, when the Cardinal fell at South Carolina. After ending a 29-year title drought final yr, Stanford seeks to change into the fourth program (Tennessee, UConn, USC) to win a minimum of two in a row.

The Huskies, who’re in search of their first title since 2016, have made each Closing 4 since 2008, and after an injury-plagued season, they appear to be the healthiest they have been at simply the proper time. They’re the No. 2 seed, however would have the benefit of being the “house” workforce in the event that they advance to the close by Bridgeport Regional. NC State is the highest seed there and is making an attempt to make this system’s first Closing 4 since 1998.

The opposite No. 1 seed is Louisville, which most not too long ago made the Closing 4 in 2018 and nonetheless seeks this system’s first nationwide title. Three-time champion Baylor is the No. 2 seed in Wichita; each the Cardinals and the Bears misplaced within the Elite Eight final season.

So which groups will find yourself in Minneapolis? Who will minimize down the nets? Right here is how ESPN’s Mechelle Voepel, Alexa Philippou and Charlie Creme see it enjoying out when the primary spherical suggestions off Friday (11:30 a.m. ET, ESPN2).

Observe this hyperlink for a printable 2022 women’s NCAA tournament bracket, and go to this hyperlink to fill out a Women’s Tournament Challenge bracket.

The Gamecocks break up votes in our predictions. Why did or did not you tab South Carolina to win the 2022 title?

Voepel: The 2 deepest groups within the discipline look like South Carolina and Stanford, and if each play to their functionality, they’ll meet within the NCAA last. At that time, I give a slight edge to the Cardinal, regardless of their Dec. 21 loss in Columbia, South Carolina. Turnovers plagued Stanford in that recreation, and so they can nonetheless be problematic for the Cardinal. However Stanford has been essentially the most constant workforce coming into the event.

In the event that they meet within the nationwide championship recreation, Stanford’s 3-point capturing may very well be the distinction. The Cardinal have made 224 treys, whereas the Gamecocks have made 148. If South Carolina could make that title match a defensive battle, the Gamecocks are slightly higher on that finish of the courtroom. However offensively, Stanford can actually unfold groups out and exhaust defenses.

That is my reasoning for going with the Cardinal to repeat, as I feel they may be the one workforce that may maintain South Carolina from successful all of it.

Philippou: I will admit that I am completely ready to eat crow on this decide. South Carolina is considered one of 13 groups within the AP ballot period that spent the whole season ranked No. 1 within the nation, and 11 of the earlier 12 went on to win the nationwide championship. I might think about the Gamecocks have a chip on their shoulder getting into the Large Dance following their collapse within the SEC event last, and are keen to indicate the nation they’re able to successful all of it.

What offers me pause, although, is that if the nationwide title recreation finally ends up a rematch of South Carolina-Stanford, I am unsure the Gamecocks would sweep the season sequence.

Voepel took the phrases just about out of my mouth by way of how Stanford may edge South Carolina. It bears reminding, too, that the Cardinal led by as many as 18 that recreation, in Columbia, and in the end by 14 on the half. Turnovers plagued them down the stretch, partly a product of South Carolina rediscovering its defensive id, but additionally on the time Stanford was nonetheless looking for consistency on the level following the departure of Kiana Williams to the WNBA. Over two months later, Tara VanDerveer’s squad appears to have largely settled in on that entrance, with Anna Wilson, Lacie and Lexie Hull and Haley Jones all chipping in dealing with the ball and enhancing from when the season began.

Stanford turned over the ball 20 instances in December and nonetheless misplaced by simply 4 factors. In an April rematch, I might count on them to take higher care of the ball, come away with the victory, and change into the fourth program within the historical past of the ladies’s event to repeat as champions.

Creme: Following a loss to Kentucky within the SEC event last, the Gamecocks have offered a few causes to be barely skeptical. Their free throw capturing and offensive execution within the fourth quarter weren’t nationwide championship caliber that day.

However I am nonetheless choosing South Carolina, which is the deepest and most gifted workforce within the nation. The latest points within the fourth quarter could be mounted; they weren’t a season-long downside however fairly crept up of their two most up-to-date video games towards Ole Miss and Kentucky.

Regardless of the loss to the Wildcats, South Carolina dominated one of the best convention within the nation all season lengthy. The Gamecocks do have the bottom factors per recreation common among the many No. 1 seeds, however their protection is so good, rating second nationally in opponents’ factors per 100 possessions, in line with Her Hoops Stats. They’ll shut down any offense; Stanford scored solely 61 factors towards South Carolina on Dec. 21.

As Voepel talked about, Stanford’s turnovers had been a problem in that recreation. The Cardinal wrestle with fast, athletic guards and dedicated 20 turnovers towards the Gamecocks. Additionally they had 20 turnovers in one other loss to Texas, a recreation wherein Stanford couldn’t comprise Rori Harmon, the Longhorns’ gifted freshman guard.

South Carolina guards Destanni Henderson and Zia Cooke are simply the type of backcourt Stanford does not wish to play towards. These two are the important thing for South Carolina the whole event, and can be if these two ultra-talented groups meet once more.

What are the keys to Louisville or NC State successful its first NCAA title?

Voepel: South Carolina and Stanford have nice depth, however NC State spreads out its offensive assault properly, too. The Wolfpack common 74.6 PPG with two gamers — heart Elissa Cunane (13.8) and guard Diamond Johnson (10.9) — averaging in double figures. NC State has made 237 3-pointers, with 5 gamers having made 30 or extra. Cunane is their centerpiece, however she does not have to have a spectacular event for NC State to win. She simply must be her regular self, a lot because the Wolfpack have to do as a workforce.

Turnovers, getting outrebounded and never attending to the foul line sufficient are what price NC State in its 73-70 loss to Indiana in final season’s Candy 16. These are issues the Wolfpack typically keep away from. This workforce is not considerably totally different from final season’s, aside from the addition of Johnson, a switch. In brief, NC State does have an opportunity to win this title, however has a smaller margin for error than South Carolina or Stanford.

As for Louisville, the Cardinals are the second-best defensive workforce statistically behind South Carolina among the many prime 4 seeds, and that may should be the way in which they get to an NCAA title. It looks like Louisville has overachieved even to get a No. 1 seed, so kudos to the Cardinals for that. A championship for Louisville could be fairly shocking.

Philippou: Louisville’s id revolves round its protection, however to make a deep run the Cardinals will want a breakout event from Kianna Smith and/or Hailey Van Lith. A typical thread in Louisville’s losses is that its offense goes chilly (they’re 1-Four when their offensive ranking is 89.zero factors per 100 possessions or worse), and that duo offers the Cardinals their greatest shot of getting going offensively. And most mainly for Louisville following latest letdowns towards NC State and Miami: Do not relinquish late fourth-quarter leads.

Outdoors of the No. 1 seeds, what different workforce has one of the best shot of successful all of it?

Creme: I picked UConn, not Stanford, as my nationwide runner-up, so the 2-seeded Huskies have to be my selection right here. That we’ve seen this wholesome model of UConn for just a few video games on the finish of the season makes this extra of a guess than the rest on this event. However my reminiscence is not so brief that I am unable to bear in mind again to October, when most of us assumed the Huskies would attain a 14th consecutive Closing 4. After all, that was earlier than Paige Bueckers injured a knee in early December and missed 19 video games. That was earlier than star recruit Azzi Fudd sat out 11 video games with a foot damage. That was additionally earlier than eight totally different Huskies missed a minimum of two video games due to damage or sickness.

All that’s within the rearview mirror now, however the lack of time that UConn’s star-studded rotation has had collectively leaves some query marks. Bueckers hasn’t performed substantial minutes since her return towards St. John’s on Feb 25. Senior Christyn Williams has performed rather well of late however has been inconsistent this season. The identical may very well be stated of Dorka Juhasz.

UConn attending to Minneapolis shouldn’t be the forgone conclusion that it seemed to be at first of the season, however expertise and a coach in Geno Auriemma who is aware of domesticate it wins out. So may the Huskies, a minimum of till the championship recreation.

Voepel: UConn’s Closing 4 streak is ridiculous. The final time the Huskies did not make it to the season’s last weekend, they misplaced within the Elite Eight to LSU when Sylvia Fowles was nonetheless a junior. Now, she is on the brink of play her 15th and last season within the WNBA.

Throw within the Huskies’ 11 NCAA titles, and they’re an anticipated option to contend, even when they don’t seem to be a No. 1 seed. However let’s take a look at one other No. 2 seed: Baylor.

For those who simply watched the Bears’ Large 12 event quarterfinal and semifinal wins, you had been left saying, “Look out. They may very well be actual hassle in Minneapolis.” For those who simply watched their loss to Texas within the Large 12 last, you’d doubt they’ll make the journey to Minnesota. Which one is the actual Baylor?

A lot nearer to the primary model. It was Texas’ third matchup with Baylor this season, and the Longhorns had been mega-motivated to finish this system’s 13-game shedding streak to the Bears. However Baylor has the most effective gamers within the nation in NaLyssa Smith, one other pressure inside in Queen Egbo, and really robust guard play.

And the way about Texas, which can be a No. 2 seed? The Longhorns’ final Closing 4 was 2003, which was additionally the one different time they gained the Large 12 event. Harmon was elevated to the nationwide highlight along with her efficiency final weekend in Kansas Metropolis, the place she was nice on offense in addition to the tireless nuisance she all the time is defensively on the ball.

Can Texas journey its Large 12 event wave all the way in which to this system’s second nationwide championship? That may be a stretch, however few anticipated the Longhorns to get to the Elite Eight final season, and so they did.